The Model, a Eurovision Song Contest prediction instrument, has a brand new chief: Finland would now be the favorite to win if the competitors had been held immediately.
‘Liekinheitin’, by Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen, has been the favorite in the betting odds for a while – now, The Model additionally believes it’s at the entrance of the race for Vienna 2026.
The system, which predicts the Song Contest’s outcomes utilizing a variety of information sources, initiatives that Finland would rating solely 388 factors based mostly on present statistics. While that’s a remarkably low rating for a winner, Finland nonetheless has a 28-point lead over France, who stay in second place from final week, and an extra 18 factors away from third-placed Denmark, who’re up from fifth.
Sweden, whose entry ‘My System’ from Felicia was projected as the chief in The Model’s first replace, has fallen to sixth place. This is essentially right down to a change in The Model’s methodology for weighting previous efficiency inside the system. As a end result, Sweden has been most affected, though the variations are minor for many international locations.
In this replace, we’ll analyse:
- Why ‘Liekinheitin’ has climbed to the high of the standings
- Two brand-new qualifiers from the semi-finals – and two now projected to overlook out
- Which songs are in competition to win – and why the chasing pack is wider than ever
What Is The Model?
The Model was constructed to reply a easy query: “If the Eurovision Song Contest were held today, who would win?” To try this, The Model turns opinion into information in the lead-up to the Contest to create weekly updates on how the race to Vienna is shaping up. The instrument has been extra profitable at predicting the Contest than betting odds, fan polls, or some other indicators.
This yr, The Model is larger than ever earlier than, with new updates launched each Monday from now till Eurovision 2026 on the ESC Insight web site, the place the outcomes will change and evolve as this yr’s Contest comes nearer. A brand new companion podcast, ‘Inside The Model’, can also be accessible on the ESC Insight feed, offering weekly prediction updates, distinctive tune evaluation, and particular visitor appearances from the world of the Contest.
Under the Hood
As The Model is now working weekly, it’s an opportunity to speak extra about how the system works – particularly when there are tweaks.
For this week’s replace, I’ve modified how earlier performances are weighted in The Model. One of the important themes of the suggestions on the first projection was that it felt prefer it favoured international locations which can be normally profitable – Sweden, being the most profitable nation in fashionable Eurovision, actually gave that impression.
To construct The Model, I take a look at it on earlier contests to make sure it might probably replicate their outcomes as precisely as potential. In testing, the headline numbers seemed correct – however on additional evaluation, I decided that it was counting on earlier efficiency greater than it ought to need to create these numbers. There has additionally been a tweak to the weighting every nation receives in the public vote to enhance this.
As a end result, this week’s replace will not be straight comparable with final week’s. For most international locations, although, any modifications are minor. I’ve nonetheless supplied the up to date numbers on the aspect of every graphic as a way to see the extent of the modifications from seven days in the past. If The Model had run final week with this actual model of the system, Finland would even have been forward.
The Model is an evolving instrument and, as the Eurovision Song Contest attracts nearer, I’ll additionally replace you if any additional tweaks are made to the underlying methodology. I’ve seen so lots of you curious about that aspect of it, and whereas I can’t reveal each component, I plan to replace you all through on how the system modifications.
Now, it’s time to dive into what The Model says would occur if the Eurovision Song Contest had been held immediately, March 23 2026.
The Model, for Monday March 23, 2026
Semi-Final One
Semi-Final One from The Model – 23/03/2026 (James Stephenson)
As all the time, we start with Semi-Final One. In these weekly updates, there gained’t be an exhaustive breakdown of each nation’s efficiency – as an alternative, I’ll attempt to deal with the greatest modifications and tales from every replace.
Despite the tweaks to the backend, the frontend outcomes are fairly related. ‘My System’ remains to be projected to be the favorite to win the first semi-final, though Felicia is now forecasted to attain 260 factors, 28 down from final week. Israel drops by an analogous quantity in second place, whereas Finland, Greece and Croatia comply with as they did seven days in the past. Finland, although, is the solely entry to realize factors week-on-week from the high 5. Much like final week, Israel is projected to win the public vote, whereas Sweden leads with the juries.
The greatest adjustment is available in the qualification race, the place we have now a brand new tune in The Model‘s Top 10: Montenegro. Last week, ‘Nova Zora’ by Tamara was simply 4 factors shy of qualifying. This week, they’ve gained 30 factors to achieve 111 and ninth place on this semi-final.
The change to the system has helped international locations with out a robust Eurovision observe file. Montenegro, who haven’t certified since 2015, is considered one of the greatest beneficiaries. Coincidentally, when Montenegro reached the Grand Final that yr, it was additionally held in Vienna.
Tamara coming into the Grand Final implies that one nation should exit. However, regardless of being in tenth place final week, Georgia has retained their place right here. That means Belgium, represented by Essyla with ‘Dancing on the Ice’, is now forecast to come back in eleventh by The Model, seven factors in need of qualifying. If this end result occurred at Eurovision, it might mark Belgium’s third consecutive exit at the semi-final stage.
Throughout this semi-final, the positions of every nation have shifted. Moldova and Serbia have every picked up a spot, with each passing Lithuania on this projection. And, in direction of the backside of the leaderboard, Poland and San Marino have moved up one place, whereas Portugal has fallen to 14th. Estonia stays in final place, though there’s hope for Vanilla Ninja: they’re seven factors higher off than they had been in final week’s projection.
Semi-Final Two
Semi-Final Two from The Model – 23/03/2026 (James Stephenson)
While the first semi-final has seen some shuffling, The Model initiatives far greater modifications in Semi-Final Two. We have a brand new projected chief, a brand new qualifier, and solely three international locations maintain the similar place in the standings that they did seven days in the past. This Eurovision Song Contest, then, appears critically unpredictable.
So, who’s the new tune at the summit of this semi-final? It’s Søren Torpegaard Lund for Denmark. His tune ‘Før Vi Går Hjem’ rises from third final week to the high, scoring 256 factors. That’s a 39-point enhance on final week and, very similar to Montenegro, Denmark has benefited from the change in methodology. While they made the remaining final yr with Sissal, who Søren beat in the DMGP superfinal, Denmark’s 4 earlier misses have helped them climb on this model of The Model.
Denmark’s climb has pushed Delta Goodrem and ‘Eclipse’ into second place, with Australia dropping plenty of their factors on to the Danes. Behind them, the greatest climbers on this semi-final are Malta. Aidan rises three locations into third, and his tune ‘Bella’ is now projected to win the jury vote right here with 141 factors.
Overall, Malta has risen by 33 factors, whereas Ukraine falls by 31 factors and two positions into fourth, though Leléka remains to be seen as the televote favorite.
In the mid-pack, positions shuffle round: Cyprus falls by one place, Bulgaria by two, whereas Czechia shifts up from seventh to sixth. After Romania, who keep in eighth regardless of an 18-point enhance from final week, we have now our second new qualifier of this replace.
This one is an excellent greater shift than Montenegro, too: Alis from Albania has risen three positions to ninth, with a rating of 100 factors, taking his tune ‘Nân’ into the Grand Final. With Norway holding onto the remaining qualifying spot, Albania’s climb implies that Luxembourg is now projected to overlook out. ‘Mother Nature’ from Eva Marija has solely misplaced two factors on this replace – however Albania’s climb has seen it lose its place on this simulation.
The Model is projecting the race for the Eurovision remaining on Thursday night time to be actually tight, too. Even Switzerland, who sit in 14th place on this replace, is simply 27 factors behind Norway in tenth – that is set to be shut.
Grand Final
The Top Five from The Model – 23/03/26 (James Stephenson)
How about that new chief?
Many had been stunned final week when The Model didn’t venture Finland first. Given its massive lead in the present betting odds, it’s been seen as the favorite in the fandom for a while.
Although the methodology change this week has made a distinction, Finland isn’t really the greatest beneficiary – removed from it. Finland’s Eurovision observe file lately has been spectacular, most notably with ‘Cha Cha Cha’ in 2023 and ‘Dark Side’ in 2021, reaching excessive locations. What’s made the distinction is a decline in factors for France and an excellent greater one for Sweden, with ‘My System’ dropping 138 factors and dropping to sixth, utterly off this graphic.
‘Liekinheitin’ nonetheless has an analogous factors unfold then, with 262 televote factors carrying it to a victory regardless of a really low 126 in the jury vote. Although there are two fewer nations giving out factors in 2026, that may nonetheless put Linda & Pete decrease than ‘Cha Cha Cha’ with the juries. There have been rumours that Linda Lampenius, a world-famous violinist, desires to play her instrument dwell at the Contest – you’ll think about that the jurors would very strongly take that into consideration when giving their factors.
What’s notable about this projection, although, is not only Finland – it’s the pack of contenders circling them. By my estimations, as many as eight international locations have a minimum of a slim probability of taking the Eurovision Song Contest crown at this second in time – the huge factors unfold suggests a doubtlessly chaotic voting sequence in Vienna.
‘Regarde!’ from France is seen as the greatest challenger by The Model for now. It has the most jury factors on this projection, though 198 can be the lowest rating for a jury winner in Eurovision’s fashionable voting system by a long way. To win, France should put collectively a jury rating a minimum of in the ballpark of Finland’s 262-point televote.
‘Før Vi Går Hjem’, although, seems to have the good thing about consensus. Much like Felicia and Sweden after they gained final week’s simulation, Denmark may gain advantage from comparatively equal assist from each voting bases. 174 jury factors and 168 televote factors is a good basis for fulfillment – however at this stage, Denmark could also be counting on underperformance from others to turn into the first Eurovision tune to triumph with out profitable the jury vote or the public vote since Duncan Laurence in 2019.
‘Michelle’ and ‘Ferto’, who place fourth and fifth, will each need to depend on a powerful televote to assert victory. Israel gained the televote final yr, in fact, however latest historical past has proven a development of the juries being much less prone to lend them their votes. Greece’s Akylas undoubtedly has an opportunity of hoovering up an enormous televote, too, however in contrast to Baby Lasagna, Joost Klein or Tommy Cash, is that this the enjoyable tune that can earn severe jury assist to win?
The Model additionally has Ukraine’s ‘Ridnym’, at the moment in eighth, as a stronger public vote contender. However, that tune scores rather more strongly with the juries throughout the information, which means it might have a greater probability of impressing there and producing the consensus it wants. Sweden’s tune undoubtedly has that consensus, however Felicia’s downside could also be preventing out her Nordic neighbours on either side of the vote.
The potential darkish horse? It might be Delta Goodrem. ‘Eclipse’ performs extra to the juries, giving it an edge, and a latest efficiency at the Nordic Eurovision Party has already generated robust buzz for Delta’s dwell vocals. If the betting odds and the followers react positively, this might be a tune that climbs up and carries an actual menace. It might additionally make the discipline much more congested, which means fewer factors on provide and a a lot tighter Eurovision voting sequence.
I don’t know if all of that can occur. What I do know? This race goes to be a rollercoaster.
Full Split Results from The Model – 23/03/26 (James Stephenson / DouzePoints.app)
With The Model’s newest replace, Finland has changed Sweden at the summit – and that would change once more. Weekly updates will present the rise and fall of entries as we be taught extra, together with seeing dwell performances, studying present working orders, and discovering the all-important stagings.
If you don’t need to miss any common weekly updates, learn The Model on ESC Insight each Monday from now till the Eurovision Song Contest 2026. And, if you wish to discover out extra about The Model works or simply nerd out about the numbers, we have now one thing particular for you.
For the first time, The Model has a companion podcast! ‘Inside The Model’ takes you deeper into the numbers with all the updates, evaluation of songs as you’ve by no means heard earlier than, and visitor appearances from a few of the most notable names in Eurovision. Our newest episode with ESC Insight’s Samantha Ross is out now, the place we analyse why Finland’s hit the entrance, the chasing pack of Eurovision contenders, and we have now a Q&A about how The Model works!
Finland leads – however who will subsequent week? See you then for the subsequent replace from The Model.
