Life comes at you quick, and nowhere does it come sooner than in an NBA playoff collection.
Best-of-sevens can flip immediately. One minute, it appears just like the New York Knicks are cruising to a 2-0 collection lead and leaving the Atlanta Hawks dealing with a must-win Game 3 at dwelling. One sudden 11-0 run later, and the Hawks are coming dwelling with the collection tied and eyeing a sensible probability to advance by holding serve in Atlanta in Games 3, 4 and 6.
In the wake of the primary two video games, and having watched this Atlanta group all season lengthy, I’ve 5 huge thoughts on Game 2, the collection and what’s forward:
Atlanta’s dynamic duo dud
The most wonderful factor about Atlanta’s Game 2 win is that it did it with underwhelming video games from its two finest gamers. All-Star ahead Jalen Johnson and guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker shot simply 23 of 60 (38.3 %) within the first two video games, together with 15 of 37 contained in the arc (40.5 % — blech!). Johnson struggled to get free from the powerful protection of Josh Hart, whereas Alexander-Walker equally had issue releasing himself from the size of Mikal Bridges (more on him under).
Through two video games, these two are the standout disappointments among the many Hawks’ high seven gamers (these seven have performed all however 39 of the minutes within the first two video games). The different 5 have been someplace between good and glorious.
CJ McCollum is unexpectedly the most important villain in Madison Square Garden since Trae Young. Onyeka Okongwu’s 82.4 % true capturing mark via two video games is spectacular contemplating half his pictures have been 3s. Dyson Daniels has been a monster on protection, Jonathan Kuminga was a game-changer in Game 2’s fourth quarter, and Gabe “Just Don’t Kill Us” Vincent has stayed out of the way in which (7.9 % utilization!), hit a pair perimeter pictures and performed satisfactory protection.
I’ll word that a part of the offensive shift in emphasis from Johnson and Alexander-Walker to McCollum (a staggering 35.0 % utilization) appears intentional. McCollum repeatedly cooked Jalen Brunson down the stretch in Game 2, and the Hawks have been targeted on attacking New York’s worst perimeter defender quite than going on the stout trio of OG Anunoby, Bridges and Hart.
New York has additionally been reluctant to modify Brunson onto Johnson in pick-and-rolls; McCollum’s go-ahead floater with two minutes left got here after Hart stayed connected to Johnson on a display. On the following journey, the Hawks didn’t even hassle with a ball display; they only had Alexander-Walker reduce to the baseline to remove any double-team assist and let McCollum incinerate Brunson one-on-one.
Additionally, the Hawks’ relative lack of transition alternatives has made it more durable for Johnson to shine. That stated, the Hawks nonetheless want more from their two finest gamers to have a sensible probability of successful three more instances. Alexander-Walker is simply 4 of 16 on 2s within the two video games, has solely 5 free-throw makes an attempt and at instances has resorted to among the iffy shot choice that plagued him early within the season.
A sequence with eight minutes left within the fourth quarter stands out, when Alexander-Walker bought the ball in transition and needed to shoot a pull-up 3, however Anunoby was prepared for him and took away the look. Instead of pulling the ball out, Alexander-Walker dribbled inside the road right into a contested 20-foot 2-pointer that Anunoby blocked. (Ironically, McCollum beat Anunoby with an almost an identical transfer for the game-winner.)
As for Johnson, he had three turnovers and no discipline objectives within the first half on Monday, together with lacking a simple shot the one time he bought iso’d in opposition to Brunson. I believed Johnson appeared drained late within the common season, however the eight days off between his final regular-season recreation (in opposition to Cleveland on April 3) and Saturday’s Game 1 ought to have revived him. He was higher within the second half, however general, he’s been too torpid on protection and not notably environment friendly on offense.
Johnson didn’t play properly (by his requirements) in any of the three regular-season video games in opposition to the Knicks, both. This is a tricky matchup for him with Hart and Anunoby in his grill for 48 minutes. But that is the playoffs; all of the matchups are powerful. The Hawks can survive some chilly capturing from Alexander-Walker, however to hold with the Knicks over seven video games, they want the All-Star model of Johnson.
The Kuminga query
I partly addressed this in my takeaway right after Game 2, however I believe it’s price speaking via additional: Jonathan Kuminga is the important thing hinge level in Atlanta’s offseason.
Atlanta has a $24 million group possibility on Kuminga, and selecting up that possibility is simply one of many alternate options the Hawks can be with him — and arguably the least doubtless.
For starters, Atlanta in concept is usually a cap room group this summer time if it doesn’t re-sign McCollum, declines the choice on Kuminga and stretches Buddy Hield (his $3 million assure might be atomized into 5 years at $600,000 a pop). That’s true even when they win the draft lottery with the choose gift-wrapped from the New Orleans Pelicans final June.
There are even situations the place the Hawks re-sign McCollum and nonetheless have more than the midlevel exception in cap room, though that might doubtless contain buying and selling one or each of Corey Kispert (might I curiosity you in two years and $27 million for our Tenth-best participant?) or Zaccharie Risacher.
More doubtless, nonetheless, the Hawks’ play because the deadline threw that concept out the window. Atlanta is sweet sufficient that re-signing the 35-year-old McCollum on a short-term deal for, say, a bit above the projected $15 million midlevel exception is smart. That means the Hawks are doubtless working as an over-the-cap group: Using their non-taxpayer midlevel exception on a top quality huge, their biannual exception on one other guard … and determining what to do with Kuminga.
Is he price $24 million? Probably not. My BORD$ free-agency analysis continues to be in beta for 2026-27, however suffice it to say, its early estimates of Kuminga’s worth are properly south of that quantity. Like, Roald Amundsen expedition-type south.
However, that doesn’t imply the Hawks ought to simply decline the choice and let him stroll. There are situations the place selecting it up nonetheless makes probably the most sense, simply to have the tradeable wage available; there are even more situations the place declining the choice however agreeing to an extended take care of Kuminga at decrease cash makes all types of sense.
Of course, Kuminga’s perceived worth might swing dramatically primarily based on what transpires the remainder of this collection (and past, ought to the Hawks advance). In the massive image, Atlanta’s books are clear sufficient to go in a number of instructions with the $24 million. If his play attracts different groups, the choice may additionally allow the Hawks to instantly flip him for a distinct participant who’s much less duplicative of Johnson … or decline the choice and sign-and-trade Kuminga on an extended deal … or, sure, deliver him again and see the place this goes a 12 months from now.
About that final shot…
Mikal Bridges goes to have a tricky time beating the fees after his shot on the finish of Game 2. The rap on him, from his critics, is that he values his consecutive video games streak a lot that he’s unwilling to soak up any contact across the basket and will actively duck conditions the place he may draw a foul or create contact to flee for the protection of a fringe jumper.
Welp … on the ultimate play of Game 2, the Hawks screwed up their protection simply sufficient to let Bridges catch the ball on the go along with a full head of steam, three seconds on the clock, a half-step benefit on Jalen Johnson and no Hawks on the rim.
Yes, Bridges additionally needed to fear about Dyson Daniels flying again on protection, and Johnson is athletic sufficient to contest a shot try on the cup. At the second he catches the ball, nonetheless, Bridges is already bailing towards the nook together with his first step quite than urgent his benefit to attract a foul on Johnson … to the purpose that he practically steps on the referee’s foot!
In a associated story, Bridges solely drew 98 free-throw makes an attempt this season in his 82 video games, and his foul-drawing fee of 6.5 % on 2-pointers is without doubt one of the league’s lowest (18th-worst amongst gamers with not less than 500 minutes, in accordance with pbpstats.com; practically all of the gamers under him are small guards).
That doesn’t imply Bridges isn’t a priceless participant; his protection has been an enormous plus, and his capturing usually is just too (these back-to-back Bridges misses on wide-open 3s in the midst of the fourth quarter of Game 2 had been a fortunate break for Atlanta). And, after all, he does preserve himself within the lineup for 82 video games yearly, which is not any straightforward feat for a lean participant.
But in a high-leverage scenario, his seeming unwillingness to soak up contact to get a bonus stood out.
The Tony Bradley expertise
Atlanta backup heart Jock Landale is probably going out for the whole collection due to an ankle damage, and that has left the Hawks’ backup heart rotation in tatters. At instances, rail-thin Mo Gueye has tried to match up in opposition to Knicks behemoth Mitchell Robinson; in Game 2, Hawks coach Quin Snyder switched round his first-half rotation to match Okongwu’s minutes with Robinson as a lot as doable.
However, one other answer could also be coming into focus: Tony Bradley appears like he’s in form to assist a little bit.
The Hawks tried Bradley for a disastrous three-minute stint of their April regular-season recreation in opposition to the Knicks, mere hours after signing him off his sofa, however he clearly wasn’t prepared for the task. Atlanta had been terrified to ship him again on the court docket; nonetheless, the truth that the Knicks weren’t guarding Gueye lastly persuaded Snyder to offer Bradley one other look in Game 2.
All issues thought of, it went OK. Bradley performed 12 minutes and completed with a tidy plus-7 plus/minus, helped alongside by a tough night time from the Knicks’ subs. He had sufficient juice to seize a steal and a block and gives a legit roll goal who bought free for a dunk in a half-court pick-and-roll.
Bradley was coping with Robinson as a Pacer in final 12 months’s Eastern Conference finals. As this collection winds on, I’d anticipate the backup heart job to be his till additional discover.
One facet word whereas we’re speaking concerning the bigs: With all of the concentrate on Robinson and New York’s offensive rebounding, the Knicks’ 24.4 % offensive rebound fee may be very survivable for the Hawks.
The flip facet, nonetheless, is that the Hawks are additionally allowed to seize offensive boards and haven’t actually been doing so. The Hawks have grabbed solely 16.3 % of their misses throughout the 2 video games, which might be a league-worst fee (emphatically so) over the common season. When your likelihood of an offensive rebound is decrease than Dyson Daniels’ 3-point proportion, that’s a unhealthy signal. It’s one motive the Hawks have fewer factors than the Knicks over the 2 video games regardless of outshooting them in efficient discipline purpose proportion, 53.3 to 53.0.
The main offensive rebounder for Atlanta on this collection? That can be Risacher, who grabbed two in his two-minute cameo in Game 1. Five different Hawks even have two, however no one has any more.
The Pelican Brief
The final time McCollum, Jose Alvarado and Daniels had been within the playoffs was in 2024, as members of the Pelicans group that was rudely swept out of the primary spherical by Oklahoma City. (An damage to Zion Williamson didn’t assist.)
So, it was a bit humorous to see McCollum and Alvarado, teammates for 4 seasons in New Orleans, entering into it and every receiving double technical fouls after their, um, interplay late within the third quarter of Game 2.
The Pelicans’ fingerprints are throughout this collection, really. Alexander-Walker was initially drafted by the Pels and overlapped each Alvarado and McCollum (although not Daniels). Daniels was drafted (and given up on) by New Orleans earlier than touchdown in Atlanta within the Dejounte Murray commerce.
Hart overlapped with each McCollum and Alvarado on the final Pelicans group to really win a playoff recreation, in 2022 in opposition to the Phoenix Suns. And after all, the Hawks personal an unprotected lottery choose courtesy of the Pelicans that has a 9.8 % probability of netting Atlanta the highest choose this June; the identical deal additionally introduced in little-used Hawks rookie Asa Newell.
Enjoy this collection, Pels followers; this is perhaps as shut as you get to the playoffs for some time.
