Former CoinRoutes CEO Dave Weisberger argued in an X publish on February 23 that Bitcoin’s early-2026 hashrate rebound is greater than a mining-cycle restoration and could also be a lagging sign of a broader value transfer forward. His core thesis is that sovereign-linked mining exercise is beginning to play for Bitcoin the identical structural position central financial institution gold shopping for performed for gold earlier than its breakout.
Weisberger frames the comparability by means of the latest gold cycle, the place he says sovereign accumulation preceded value discovery by years. In his telling, the important thing sign was not ETF demand or retail flows, however central banks steadily including reserves as geopolitical fragmentation and fiat-risk considerations rose.
“The result? A parabolic gold rally that few saw coming in real time,” he wrote. “Gold has surged to record highs well north of $5,000/oz in this cycle, leaving the ‘it’s just inflation’ crowd scrambling. The buying came first. The price discovery followed later.”
Why Bitcoin’s Hashrate Recovery Is Signalling The Next Rally
Applying that framework to Bitcoin, Weisberger factors to what he describes as a “textbook V-shaped recovery” in community hashrate in early 2026. After a pointy pullback of roughly 15% to twenty% from prior peaks, he says computational energy rebounded from under 900 EH/s to above 1 ZH/s, accompanied by one of many largest absolute problem will increase on report, at almost 15%.
For Weisberger, that restoration is not only a post-stress normalization after winter curtailments, regional shutdowns, and post-halving margin compression. He argues it displays a distinct class of miner stepping in. “This isn’t random noise. It is the direct footprint of sovereign mining stepping in where private miners hesitated,” he wrote.
A central a part of the publish is Weisberger’s declare that not less than 13 nation-states are actually mining Bitcoin at a governmental or state-linked degree (backed by VanEck analysis). He cites Bhutan, the UAE, and El Salvador, and likewise names Russia, Iran, and Ethiopia as nations deploying vitality property into mining.
“These are not retail or even corporate miners chasing daily hashprice,” he wrote. “These are governments converting stranded or strategic energy into a portable, verifiable, seizure-resistant reserve asset. They mine for policy reasons: revenue without printing more local currency, network security in which they hold a direct stake, and positioning in a world where financial sovereignty matters.”
Weisberger argues sovereign miners function with totally different constraints than non-public miners: longer time horizons, totally different price of capital, and fewer must promote output into market weak spot. In that framework, sovereign mining turns into a mechanism for absorbing newly issued BTC instantly into long-term holdings, decreasing sell-side strain whereas additionally strengthening community safety.
Weisberger explicitly describes hashrate restoration as a lagged, not coincident, indicator, as a result of sovereign mining growth requires {hardware} procurement, vitality contracts, infrastructure buildout, and coverage approvals. Those processes transfer slowly, typically in periods when value motion seems flat or corrective.
He argues that this sequence can change market construction earlier than value displays it: stronger safety, tighter issuance move, and broader validation of Bitcoin as a reserve asset fairly than a purely speculative car. His conclusion is blunt: “The hashrate recovery isn’t just technical resilience. It is a sovereign signal flashing bright. Governments are voting with energy infrastructure and balance sheets.”
At press time, BTC traded at $63,209.
