The Barclays (LSE: BARC) share price hit a five-year excessive this month of 531.3p, after hovering a whopping 213%. And at the time of writing (24 July), it isn’t far beneath that. And it does not look overpriced, in my judgement.
It appears the experts are in the identical boat. They’re strongly bullish on Barclays, and think the financial institution may have a lot to supply in the subsequent few years…
Bullish price targets
Broker targets have been rising. At the finish of June, Berenberg set the share price bar at 620p. That’s a additional 19% forward of where the shares are right now. It’s up from JP Morgan‘s earlier 600p goal. And even that will imply a additional 15% rise on prime of the beautiful efficiency we have already seen.
To be truthful, the common goal of 566p is barely about 8.5% forward. But the lower-end of the scale is generally dominated by outdated estimates, which look outdated.
My ideas on what the Barclays share price may obtain? I’m extra optimistic than even Berenberg, although with a longer-term horizon. Let me clarify why…
Track report persevering with?
Barclays’ earnings per share (EPS) suffered from the pandemic disaster. But since hitting a low in 2023, diluted EPS climbed 57% by 2025. At the time, here is what the boss needed to say…
Barclays achieved all monetary steering in 2025. RoTE was 11.3% as all divisions delivered double-digit RoTE. We distributed £3.7bn to our shareholders, together with the £1.0bn share buyback introduced right now, up from £3.0bn in 2024.
— CEO C. S. Venkatakrishnan, FY 2025
Looking ahead, analysts forecast a additional 75% EPS climb between 2025 and 2028. And that is what I think may justify a considerably larger share price.
Low valuation
Forecasts put the 2026 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio at 10, which is probably truthful contemplating the present financial local weather.
But it may drop to solely seven by 2028. I sincerely hope inflation will be higher managed by then, and the Middle East will be nearer to one thing resembling peace. Still, to be sincere, I’d have mentioned that two years in the past too, and I would not precisely have been on the cash. Trying to guess the future is considered one of the greatest dangers on this enterprise.
If the Barclays share price rises to only maintain its ahead P/E round 10, that ought to imply a share price of about 740p by then. And if I add in the present premium prompt by the common dealer price goal, we might be taking a look at greater than 800p.
Bottom line
Further financial weak point in the UK or US may nonetheless spell bother for the Barclays shares. And share costs usually do not go where I count on them to, so I’m actually simply making an attempt knowledgeable guesses right here. I additionally do not see a lot security margin at the second, so there must be a actual probability of share price weak point forward.
