Our soccer betting knowledgeable Jones Knows gives his perception throughout the weekend card of Premier League fixtures.
Aston Villa vs Leeds, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Leeds on the double probability at Evens with Sky Bet is a guess that makes loads of attraction.
Why? Because Villa with out Boubacar Kamara are a totally completely different animal.
Since the beginning of the 23/24 Premier League season, when Kamara performs, Villa concede simply 1.1 targets per sport and win 61 per cent of their matches. That’s top-four calibre output. He provides such construction, management and safety for the again 4. Everything flows by means of that defensive midfield display screen.
Take him out of the equation and the drop-off is dramatic.
Without Kamara, Villa are conceding 1.7 targets per sport and their win charge tumbles to 42 per cent. That’s not a marginal dip, that is the distinction between a Champions League-chasing aspect and one working at mid-table ranges.
He is the glue that retains Villa’s form so compact. Without him, they’re simpler to play in opposition to.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Brentford vs Brighton, Saturday 3pm
Igor Thiago is a striker that makes those who like to mix bets utilizing the BuildABet operate sit up and take discover.
He’s a chaos service provider. The sort defenders hate enjoying in opposition to as he is an elite finisher however somebody who places himself about too. Goals, fouls, bookings – it is all a part of the package deal.
This precise mixture of him scoring, committing two fouls and being carded has landed in two of his final six begins. That’s a 33 per cent strike-rate for a ten/1 shot. From a pure numbers perspective, that may be a good edge to assault at a juicy worth.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Igor Thiago to rating, commit +2 fouls & be carded (10/1 with Sky Bet)
Chelsea at 2/9 with Sky Bet which tells you every part about how this match is anticipated to play out.
The betting edge sits with Joao Pedro at Evens to rating.
Since the arrival of Liam Rosenior, there’s been a noticeable shift in how Chelsea’s central striker is getting used. Rosenior has a observe report of enhancing attacking output from key gamers, giving them readability of function and belief. Strikers thrive on rhythm and duty. Joao Pedro presently has each.
Four targets in his final 5 Premier League video games is displaying a interval of sustained kind. His shot quantity is wholesome, his touches in the field are up and he is working because the clear focus reasonably than drifting in and out of video games.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-0 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Joao Pedro to rating (Evens with Sky Bet)
West Ham vs Bournemouth, Saturday 5.30pm, stay on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Andoni Iraola and the Bournemouth hierarchy are doing outstanding issues. Every key metric in their efficiency and outcomes output is up since they offered their best participant in Antoine Semenyo six video games in the past.
They are the brand new Brighton when it comes to recruitment. They have such a good way of discovering gamers that may play Iraola’s high-intensity, vertical and aggressive with out the ball fashion and then make the following step up in phrases of improvement.
Bournemouth are unbeaten in all 12 Premier League video games this season in opposition to groups presently twelfth or decrease and Iraola has by no means misplaced in opposition to a Nuno Espirito Santo group in 5 conferences, profitable on combination 12-6. There is loads of juice taking the Cherries on the draw no guess possibility at Evens with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Bournemouth draw no guess (Evens with Sky Bet)
Manchester City vs Newcastle, Saturday 8pm
Nick Woltemade enjoying central midfield. It appears to be like incorrect. It feels incorrect. And but it really works.
This positional change from centre ahead to a part of the midfield three does carry some glorious betting alternatives while the props market are sluggish to regulate their traces.
Since dropping deeper into the center of the midfield, Woltemade has been racking up the foul involvements at a better charge than his typical output. In each his begins at Aston Villa and Qarabag he is made three foul involvements (fouls received and fouls dedicated). It’s 13/10 to land once more with Sky Bet. A cracking worth.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Crystal Palace vs Wolves, Sunday 2pm, stay on Sky Sports
There’s nothing fairly as highly effective in soccer betting as narrative assembly numbers.
Jorgen Strand Larsen going through former membership Wolves for his new employers Crystal Palace? That’s the form of angle that will get the juices flowing.
The 25/1 on provide with Sky Bet for him to rating and be carded is a type of costs that makes you double take. A participant with a degree to show is a harmful one.
We usually see ex-players begin these fixtures at full throttle. Emotion creeps in and emotion can lead to bookings. If he scores, the celebration may boil over. Both bets may land in one motion. And they nonetheless have an opportunity of touchdown at separate factors in the match.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Jorgen Strand Larsen to rating and to be carded (25/1 with Sky Bet)
Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool, Sunday 2pm, stay on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
If you are wanting on the straight win worth on Liverpool at 4/5 away to Nottingham Forest, I’m with you.
Yet typically the sharper play is not simply backing the plain consequence, it is backing the sample that comes with it. Liverpool to win to nil at 23/10 appears to be like a much more rewarding angle. When Liverpool win, they have an inclination to shut the door. There’s little or no ‘we’ll outscore you 3-2’ about their current victories, particularly in matches the place the market expects them to deal with enterprise.
All seven of their current wins in opposition to groups they went off 4/5 or shorter to beat away from dwelling had been achieved to nil. When they dominate all these fixtures, they management territory, restrict transitions and squeeze the life out of opponents. It’s the Arne Slot approach.
Zoom out additional and 9 of their final 11 victories general have been to nil, too.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
Sunderland vs Fulham, Sunday 2pm, stay on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
This is a type of ultra-condensed markets the place you can make a case for all three outcomes with out actually convincing your self on any of them. The win costs are tight, hovering across the 17/10 mark for each and the handicap traces are cautious.
When that occurs, the draw usually turns into the worth just because it is the most important worth of the three.
At 23/10, you are being paid extra for an consequence that matches the form of the sport. Sunderland at dwelling are very aggressive, well-drilled and not often blown away. Fulham are organised, tactically mature and snug enjoying in tight margins away from dwelling. These two could cancel each other out.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Tottenham vs Arsenal, Sunday 4.30pm, stay on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Lots on the road with a backdrop of pure rigidity in the air. Tottenham are too huge at 5/1 for the victory however the best guess revolves round playing cards.
The final 13 conferences have produced 5.3 yellows per sport and I’d count on that common to be hit however the market has that coated.
So, heading to the participant playing cards is advisable.
Martin Zubimendi is the place my cash goes at 11/4 with Sky Bet.
Zubimendi is a cynical participant that does have a tendency to get himself caught brief in transition or speak his approach into hassle in huge atmospheres. He’s been carded away at Liverpool, Sunderland and Chelsea – and 3 times in the Champions League already this season.
His direct opponent right here in Xavi Simons is one more reason to become involved. He’s an excellent drawer of fouls and playing cards. And makes challenges look worse than they’re, which is a key trait to when searching for worth in card match-ups.
If you run his playing cards drawn information in league matches throughout the final three seasons, he is drawn 37 playing cards off opponents from simply over 4,000 minutes of motion. That’s a card drawn each 108 minutes – nearly one a sport. Elite stage skullduggery.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Martin Zubimendi to be carded (11/4 with Sky Bet)
Everton vs Manchester United, Monday 8pm, stay on Sky Sports
Harry Maguire to be fouled at 5/6 with Sky Bet appears to be like a cracking angle to assault.
Since breaking again into the United beginning XI, it is a guess that is quietly been printing. He’s been fouled in every of his final 5 begins, profitable seven fouls in whole throughout these matches. He assaults first contact aggressively, steps into midfield with the ball and is not shy about placing his physique between opponent and possession. When you play that approach, contact follows.
His possible direct opponent, Thierno Barry, averages 1.75 fouls per 90 minutes. That’s a ahead who engages, presses exhausting and would not thoughts leaving a foot in when chasing again.
