Kristen Shilton
Greg Wyshynski
Multiple Authors
The Buffalo Sabres are exemplifying why being a “wagon” became part of sports activities lexicon. Finally, everybody’s on board. And we aren’t simply speaking about the fan base.
It took a seismic shift from inside the Sabres’ personal dressing room to show the tide on a 2025-26 season that headed early on towards catastrophe. Buffalo’s vaunted, deeply gifted younger core was supposed to guide the crew again to the playoffs and finish its historic postseason drought at 14 seasons.
But issues weren’t trending in that route for the Sabres in the early months — till instantly they have been as Buffalo became considered one of the hottest groups in the NHL.
What needed to occur for Buffalo to go from close to the NHL’s basement to its penthouse? We examined the analytics, studied developments and gathered insights — from inside and outdoors the group — to reply that query.
Basically: Are the Buffalo Sabres for actual? And can they parlay this run of success right into a Stanley Cup?
What needed to change for Buffalo to soar?
The 2025-26 season started with Buffalo aiming to finish its 14-year playoff drought. But nothing was going to plan. On Dec. 8 — solely two months into the season — the Sabres have been thirtieth in the league in factors proportion (.448) with an 11-14-4 file. Those postseason hopes have been already at risk.
One week later, basic supervisor Kevyn Adams was fired and changed by Jarmo Kekalainen. Head coach Lindy Ruff would stay in place, making an attempt to steer Buffalo out of its skid.
And he did. Or slightly, the crew did.
Since Adams was let go on Dec. 15, Buffalo holds the finest file in the NHL (31-7-4), is giving up the fewest targets in opposition to per recreation (2.60) and is second solely to the Tampa Bay Lightning in scoring (3.76 targets per recreation). It has been a exceptional 180 that left a shocked hockey world at massive asking: how?
“We had to have a few meetings,” captain Rasmus Dahlin stated. “Eventually it just clicked. We realized that it’s us in here that’s been the problem. We can blame other guys, but it’s us in here that really had to do it. And we came together and started playing better, and went through that adversity together.”
Dahlin — who went viral this month by declaring the key to Buffalo’s burgeoning crew chemistry was to “drink beers” — has been weighed down by the Sabres’ struggles since arriving as the crew’s No. 1 choose in 2018. Buffalo has come near breaking its playoff drought in latest seasons, however there was all the time one thing lacking. Addressing that void took longer than it ought to have given the Sabres’ talent degree.
“We’re working really hard out there,” Dahlin stated. “We’re playing solid defense. I think that’s where our game is coming from, with backchecking, blocking shots, all that. That’s how you win games. We’ve been through a lot the last few years. Now we know what is making us successful, and it’s coming to work and working really, really hard. Winning is hard. We know that, so it’s the hard work that we need to keep doing.”
Jason Zucker is well-traveled by way of a 15-year profession and he can attest that always the reply to what ails a crew is not all that difficult. There’s a cause coaches preach the significance of these “little things.” At some level the gamers acknowledge them too — and that is what can flip a season on its head.
“It’s honestly just finding a consistent game,” Zucker stated. “I don’t think there’s a single thing we can put our finger on and say, ‘That was it, that was what did it.’ I think it’s a combination of guys stepping up at different times, and goaltenders playing well, and learning how to close out close games, and doing the right things. When you can commit to those things game in, game out, that’s when it clicks.”
There’s due credit score to Ruff for facilitating that from behind the bench. The make-up of this Sabres crew is not like ones Ruff has coached beforehand in Buffalo or elsewhere. Those variations have created a dynamic for him to maximise.
“I think I’ve had [good] depth in the past, but the depth has usually been young guys,” Ruff stated. “This is a little bit different right now. Some of the depth that we have, and we have a lot of it, is more veteran guys. That’s probably the biggest difference for me.”
Zucker stated there wasn’t essentially an identifiable change in Ruff proper after Adams was let go. It was extra that his messaging got here throughout in new methods, touchdown with, maybe, a extra attentive viewers.
“Honestly, I think it was an emphasis prior [to Adams’ firing] that we had to do the right things more often,” Zucker stated. “But for whatever reason, it wasn’t clicking all the way with us. And now it’s becoming more of an emphasis within the room again, and we are executing that at the right times and closing out games. We had heard it before and now it’s happening.”
Also, the Sabres aren’t so arduous on themselves when issues do not go proper. Goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen factors to a progress in mindset “as individuals and a group” to remain the course and belief their techniques no matter the consequence.
“When you’re just playing solid hockey, it helps the confidence,” Luukkonen stated. “It helps to know that we have a rhythm in our game that works. I feel like even the games we lose, there’s usually some positives to take out. Even when it’s not our best game, we are able to kind of crawl our way back and be in a position to win. We have a style of hockey that has been working for us. And I feel like in every game, we kind of find something we have to improve on, but then we also have the system that works for us.”
Will that proceed to serve the Sabres when the playoffs arrive?
Is their goal-scoring charge sustainable?
The Sabres maximize their alternatives higher than virtually any crew in the NHL.
From the span starting Dec. 9, Buffalo was second in the NHL in targets per recreation (3.73) of their subsequent 45 video games, topped solely by Nikita Kucherov and the Lightning (4.00). Yet the Sabres have been solely seventeenth in photographs on aim per recreation (27.6) throughout that span. They do not deal in quantity. They depend on their aim scorers to complete the probabilities they create, which they do fairly properly.
Buffalo has 13 gamers with double-digit targets. In that very same span since Dec. 9, the Sabres had a crew capturing proportion of 13.6%, which was second behind Tampa Bay; and an 11.2% capturing proportion at 5-on-5, which was fifth in that span.
“The main reason that the Sabres are winning games this season is that they’re converting their chances into goals well,” Micah Blake McCurdy of HockeyViz.com stated.
The crew’s targets vs. anticipated targets is round 13%, which is well top-five in the league this season.
Vin Masi of ESPN Research sees the Sabres’ numbers from high-danger scoring areas as a microcosm of their offensive recreation. Stathletes has a metric referred to as complete slot involvement, which is the sum of their slot shot makes an attempt and profitable passes to the slot and puck carries to the slot. Most of their numbers listed below are middling, including as much as twenty second in complete slot involvement per recreation.
“However, once they get there, they are making the most,” Masi stated. “Their shooting percentage is first overall on shots from the slot and second overall on shots between the dots and from the inner slot.”
Combined with their stellar goaltending, this goal-scoring charge has led to some spectacular outcomes.
“This is a team that has generally outperformed their underlying [numbers] in the past few seasons due to the scoring talent on the roster,” stated Jack Fraser, co-founder of HockeyStats.com. “Their PDO isn’t crazy, but they’re on pace for a goal differential almost 50 goals better than what the baseline expectation is based on their shot quality for and against.”
Can this capturing success proceed in the playoffs?
“The Sabres’ finishing talent is legitimate, but all finishing talent is inherently streaky, at every level of quality,” McCurdy stated. “Building a team around it makes you a little more vulnerable to cold spells that are extremely unlikely to stop a team from making the playoffs, but can easily lose them a playoff series.”
Mike Kelly of NHL Network can be cautious of a settle down.
“From a process standpoint, there is cause for concern during the heater the Sabres have been on since early December,” he stated. “Expected goals for and against are similar to what they were earlier in the season when things were not going well.”
Will Buffalo ‘river hockey’ translate to playoffs?
It’s simple that the Sabres are considered one of the NHL’s most entertaining groups this season, due to their goal-scoring prowess and the jubilant feelings of a franchise lastly ending an epic postseason drought.
But there is a long-standing custom for “fun” groups in the NHL, through which doubters query whether or not their method can succeed when the motion tightens up in the playoffs. Whether it was the “Young Guns” Washington Capitals or Jon Cooper’s Lightning, these debates led to crises of conscience … till they have been silenced by Stanley Cup wins.
The Sabres entered that custom through Elliotte Friedman’s Sportsnet column on March 19, when he wrote: “I think there are a lot of people around the league who are happy to see Buffalo rising. It’s been too long and their fans deserve it. If there’s any question, it is: Can their style work during grind-time? ‘It’s river hockey,’ one opposing player said, ‘although they are very good at it.'”
Luukkonen would agree what the Sabres have going is a superb factor — and, to his thoughts, completely sustainable.
“We have a young, skillful, good skating team, so we have to trust that,” he stated. “It’s the other stuff we’ve tried that doesn’t really work in our favor. And as long as we play skilled and speed hockey, I feel like that’s something we’re good at and something that’s been working out for us and will keep working for us.”
River hockey, pond hockey, firewagon hockey … this fashion goes by many names, however all of them primarily imply the similar factor: freewheeling offense in entrance of below-average protection. But the query dealing with the Sabres is whether or not that offense can stay freewheeling in a tight-checking playoff collection.
“While they are making some of their own luck, it does not stand to reason that it would continue when the games are higher checking, and scoring chances are more difficult to come by,” stated Rachel Kryshak, the knowledge analyst behind Betalytics and a prospects author for ESPN.
A giant a part of the Sabres’ offensive recreation is their capacity to create off the rush. Masi stated that as of March 24, Buffalo led the NHL in rush targets and bought the third-highest proportion of their non-empty-net targets off the rush, to go together with the highest capturing proportion on shot makes an attempt off the rush.
“Will that be sustainable in the postseason where we’re led to believe it’s more of a grind?” Masi requested.
Fraser wonders about what’s actually occurring beneath the hood.
“The Sabres are a good team, but I don’t think we should discard the usual skepticism over a team running red-hot just because it’s a good story,” he stated. “We have them dead average in expected goal differential, and I know that proprietary models have them in the same range.”
Can the goaltending stay this dominant?
Hockey is an easy recreation: get saves, win video games. Hot goaltending can do every thing from win a coach the Jack Adams Award to show a playoff also-ran right into a division champ.
Between Alex Lyon and Luukkonen, together with a handful of video games from Colten Ellis, the Sabres have had a startling variety of saves. Last season, Buffalo was thirty first in the NHL in crew save proportion (.879). This season, the Sabres are third (.901) behind the Colorado Avalanche and Minnesota Wild.
Kryshak notes that in a latest 20-game stretch, the Sabres’ goalies saved almost 20 targets greater than anticipated — a median of a aim per recreation.
Lyon, 33, has had stretches in his profession of pure dominance. Such as when he went 6-1-1 down the stretch to get the Florida Panthers into the 2023 playoffs, the place they shocked the NHL by upsetting the record-breaking Boston Bruins in a seven-game first-round collection earlier than dropping to Vegas in the Stanley Cup Final. Lyon began the first three video games of the Boston collection earlier than ceding the crease again to Sergei Bobrovsky.
Lyon was in a rut this season for Buffalo, having gone 0-2-3 in his earlier 5 video games, when he was referred to as into motion in opposition to the Edmonton Oilers on Dec. 9 when starter Ellis was pulled after 19 minutes due to a concussion. Lyon made 21 saves for the win. He would go 17-2-1 with a .920 save proportion and a 2.33 goals-against common in his subsequent 20 choices.
“This is a guy that thinks the game at such a unique and high level,” stated Kevin Woodley of InAim Magazine and NHL.com. “I do not assume that Alex Lyon is way behind Connor Hellebuyck relating to studying and anticipating and pondering by way of the recreation.”
Luukkonen, 27, was Buffalo’s major starter over the previous two seasons however was coming off a brutal 2024-25 (.887 save proportion, minus-8.6 targets saved above anticipated). At the begin of this season, it appeared like extra of the similar: 4-5-1 file and an .884 save proportion. Since Dec. 9, Luukkonen went 13-3-2 with a .921 save proportion over his subsequent 18 choices.
“He moves so well for a big man,” Woodley stated of the 6-foot-5 goalie. “He was really good two years ago, took a step back last year and his numbers are sort of slightly above where he was two years ago. It’s just sometimes it takes a little time to put all those pieces together.”
Lyon and Luukkonen have each been amongst the NHL’s finest goalies throughout the Sabres’ ascent to the prime of the convention. Clear Sight Analytics has Lyon seventh and Luukkonen eighth in targets saved above anticipated since Dec. 31. Lyon’s adjusted save proportion is fourth in the NHL, with Luukkonen at No. 12.
Their success begins with the setting surrounding them.
“They’re not being asked to stop bullets in their teeth most nights, and that’s your starting point,” Woodley stated. “But they’re both outperforming that environment by a pretty good margin.”
It’s the setting that provides Woodley pause when fascinated by the Sabres’ goaltending in the playoffs, as their lack of playoff expertise might be an element.
“You get into the playoff series and some young guys might start running around out of position trying to do too much,” Woodley stated.
Then once more, Luukkonen has performed in as many playoff video games as rookie middle Noah Ostlund. Woodley recalled a dialog with Carolina Hurricanes goalie Frederik Andersen years in the past through which he acknowledged that goalies may be as prone as skaters in “trying to do too much” in the postseason.
“Whether that’s [Luukkonen] going through it for the first time or his teammates in front of him going through it for the first time — and maybe not holding some of this structure that they found or doing things they didn’t do to lead to the success — that’s my only hesitation,” Woodley stated.
Will Buffalo follow rotating starters in aim?
Lyon does not default to small speak. Even the most benign query — “Hey, how’s it going?” — leads to an truthfully considerate reply.
“Ah, I’m good, and a little anxious at the same time,” Lyon stated after the Sabres’ morning skate final week.
A follow-up question produced additional reality bombs.
“Well, I just think that residing in fear is the fastest way to propel yourself into success,” he stated. “When you have a deep fear of failure. No, that’s a good thing. It’s a good time here for us. I could give you like a million cool quotes about this team.”
Lyon is a unicorn in the NHL — an unapologetically free speaker, equally unbothered assessing highs or lows, and unafraid to be his entire self. That latter high quality interprets to his spot in the Sabres’ goalie rotation, primarily with Luukkonen — and Lyon’s associate can agree he is a singular character.
“Alex is a pretty intense dude, in the best way possible,” Luukkonen stated. “It’s been fun to see. As a goalie, you don’t always feel the best, but he brings it every night. It doesn’t matter if it’s practice or game, he will be bringing his A-game. Not every goalie can face every game with intensity. Some people are more calm, but I feel like how he looks at the game, how he attacks them, has been impressive to me.”
Luukkonen struggled to get his recreation so as this season. Leaning on Lyon helped him get there. Luukkonen sat out time early in the season due to a lower-body damage, and was mediocre when he did take the crease. Another lower-body damage in late January compelled him out once more (and saved him out of the 2026 Winter Olympics). The 27-year-old did not discover his candy spot till after that break, when he emerged as a central a part of Buffalo’s run up the standings.
“It’s been so up-and-down, up-and-down for me,” Luukkonen stated. “And as a team, we kind of figure it out. And at the same time as goalies, we had to work together and help each other. It’s made it easier to improve our game. We have found a good rhythm here with the rotation, and it’s been working out well for us.”
Goaltenders are the solely NHL gamers who will not compete for an ironman streak. That doesn’t suggest they’ll all flourish sharing the workload the approach Luukkonen and Lyon have, notably over the previous a number of weeks. It’s not essentially what both participant would select — to not be a crew’s bona fide No. 1 starter — however in Buffalo’s case, Ruff’s philosophy has been to stay with what works.
“I think every goalie wants to play as much as they can,” Luukkonen stated. “But in the end, it’s a winning-focused business. It doesn’t matter. It’s all about if you win the games or not. And I think this year, the system has been working out. Alex has been playing great. And I’ve been somewhat happy with my own games too. I feel like as long as we kind of keep the winning going, it’s all good.”
It’s the timeliness of Lyon and Luukkonen that has breathed confidence by way of the Sabres’ ranks. Luukkonen notes how Buffalo is a “high-flying” group, and whereas their protection corps has been robust this season, the Sabres can nonetheless get burned by giving up too many alternatives. That’s the place their goaltending has been a recreation changer.
“They are one of the biggest reasons we’re at the spot we are right now,” Tage Thompson stated of the goalies. “Honestly, it’s such a huge difference. When they’re back there, they make huge saves when we need them. That just gives us life on the bench. We’d like to limit some chances against us — and I think we’ve done a better job at that — but sometimes [other teams] are going to get good looks and you need your goalie to bail you out, and they’ve done that.”
Another cog in the Sabres’ goaltending machine is Ellis. The 25-year-old rookie has performed in 13 video games this season whereas choosing up suggestions and tips from Lyon and Luukkonen. It’s a helpful alternative for him to glean every thing he can from their expertise.
“I can learn a lot from the two guys here, from watching how they play and seeing what attributes they have that makes them successful, and then test it out for myself,” Ellis stated. “I’m always thinking about my game and how I can improve, so being able to bounce ideas off them and see them play so well, it’s been a lot of fun. And obviously between the three of us, we’re very close to each other. We want the best for each other, and we all push each other.”
Will these bonds be examined come the postseason if just one participant can take the reins? Ruff hasn’t dedicated to something — Buffalo is not formally in but, in spite of everything — but it surely’s not frequent for groups to rotate wholesome netminders in the playoffs. Each remaining regular-season recreation might be seen as Lyon and Luukkonen auditioning for the position of Game 1 starter.
Who winds up on prime of that playbill might be unveiled in due time. Lyon is characteristically introspective about the unknown forward for Buffalo — uncertainty has outlined the 33-year-old’s nine-year profession with 5 totally different groups. It additionally has given Lyon sufficient perspective to know not every thing is in his management.
“Emotionally, it’s like anything else,” Lyon stated of ready to see the playoff depth chart. “At this point, I’m so trained to just not live and die with the circumstances. For sure, you’re always trying to play the best you can and get as much opportunity as you can. But that being said, the reason I’m here is also, I’m willing to be in a three-goalie rotation, and that’s part of my livelihood. It has been my livelihood in the NHL. That mentality is engrained in me as well.
“And I’ll fortunately say it: I hope [Luukkonen] begins 16 playoff video games in a row. I hope he wins all 16, and I hope we win the Stanley Cup. Then me not enjoying can be a terrific drawback to have.”
Are the playoff novice Sabres ready for prime time?
There are fewer than a dozen players on the Sabres’ roster with playoff experience. There are only three who have lifted the Stanley Cup: defenseman Bowen Byram with the Avalanche, winger Tanner Pearson with the Los Angeles Kings and defenseman Luke Schenn with the Lightning, twice.
Pearson has played the most postseason games among the Sabres, with 59 appearances. That’s 59 more than Thompson, Dahlin, Owen Power, Jack Quinn, Josh Doan, Josh Norris and Luukkonen.
Of course, pressure situations exist outside of the NHL. The gold medal that Thompson brought home for the U.S. from Italy is evidence of that. But the Sabres have thrived thanks to a supporting cast filled with young players who have not yet felt the pressure cooker of the postseason such as Doan (age 23), Power (22), Quinn (23) and Zach Benson (20).
“Their younger gamers don’t get sufficient of the credit score,” Kryshak said. “Yes, Thompson, [Alex] Tuch and Dahlin have been unimaginable. But the Sabres, flat out, are usually not the place they’re with out the contributions of Josh Doan, Jack Quinn and Zach Benson.”
Ruff has rewarded his rising stars with increased responsibilities, including moving Quinn onto the team’s top power-play unit. There are a luxury of options for Ruff that wouldn’t exist if those role players weren’t ready to shoulder growing expectations.
“I feel typically you want totally different appears to be like,” Ruff said of promoting Quinn. “I feel for those who can transfer items round … and get the high quality probabilities you want, then we will transfer a chunk right here or there. It’s one thing we’ll [keep] taking a look at.”
Is this the 2019 St. Louis Blues all over again?
We’ve seen teams find a better version of themselves during the regular season.
The most recent and famous example was in 2018-19, when the St. Louis Blues went from last place in the NHL to a Stanley Cup championship in the span of roughly five months. They had a .722 points percentage in the last 45 games of the regular season. Before that, St. Louis had a .459 points percentage in 37 games.
Both those Blues and these Sabres made significant organizational changes to spark their in-season transformations: Buffalo’s was in the front office with their Adams-Kekalainen swap; the Blues did it by replacing coach Mike Yeo with Craig Berube. But Blues star Robert Thomas told ESPN that for those Blues, success ultimately boiled down to the players.
“Confidence is such an enormous factor. There’s a mindset the place you’re feeling such as you’re unstoppable, and our crew felt like we have been unstoppable that 12 months,” he recalled. “It did not matter if we have been down two targets in the third interval — we simply discovered a approach to come again. That’s simply the approach it felt.”
Not even hockey’s sharpest minds have a metric for intangibles, those elements that can’t be touched or seen or written on a stat sheet. They are, in essence, the spirit of a club.
“Outside of the numbers, this appears like a crew who is actually in it for one another. That type of camaraderie, paired with earned confidence and a few luck, is a recipe for fulfillment,” Kryshak said.
Kelly says he sees the same thing, and points to the construction of the team as a key reason.
“This is anecdotal, however I do not assume you possibly can underestimate the significance of each participant on a crew believing they’ve an essential position to play,” he said. “This Sabres crew has purchased in up and down the lineup and does not appear to have many, if any, weak hyperlinks.”
He factors to the approach Norris has been deployed as a third-line middle and the addition of a participant equivalent to Sam Carrick to their backside six.
“Since Buffalo turned its season round, there is not a daily ahead on the crew who performs greater than 20 minutes per evening or lower than 10,” he said. “They get contributions from nearly all over the place and have gamers slotted into roles the place they’ve an opportunity to succeed.”
Can the Sabres win the Stanley Cup?
In January, Tuch delivered a thesis statement for the Sabres.
“Everybody’s coming in attempting to show themselves, and we’re attempting to show as a crew that we’re legit,” he said. “We’re not simply going to go for the playoffs. We’re going to go for the Cup and that is our aim: get higher each day. That’s it. That’s the finish aim. We’re not in right here simply to squeak in.”
It was bold, and it was inspiring. Some felt it was delusional.
But as the wins continued to pile up for the Sabres, Tuch’s words seemed potentially prophetic. And the fact that it was Tuch — who grew up only 2½ hours down I-90 in Syracuse — making that declaration offers emotional heft to a fan base that has been waiting for the Sabres to get their act together.
It doesn’t matter how long a player has been in Buffalo, either. The passion is palpable.
“As a lot as you need to say, you do not put on that [expectation] and gamers do not put on that, it is unimaginable to not to a point,” Lyon said. “And so I feel we attempt to take quite a lot of pleasure in simply representing the crest properly and that is been enjoyable and the metropolis has been nice.”
Is it all too good to be true? Or could Buffalo win the Stanley Cup for the first time in franchise history?
“Aside from being the luckiest crew when it comes to outperforming anticipated targets in the Betalytics mannequin, I feel there’s some actual magic in Buffalo,” Kryshak said. “They are getting unimaginable goaltending, actually otherworldly stuff when in comparison with the probabilities they offer up.”
Said McCurdy: “Both of their important goaltenders are overperforming their profession outcomes, so that will make me slightly anxious, however the outcomes this season themselves aren’t so foolish as to be actually unsettling. I do not see every other pink flags; in reality, if something I feel they have not gotten fairly as a lot reward in standings factors for his or her goaltending as the saves themselves would recommend.”
Added Fraser: “Getting into the playoffs is large — particularly for them — and getting a excessive seed to ensure no less than some dwelling ice and doubtlessly a soft-ish matchup in opposition to a crew like the Canadiens, Bruins or Red Wings is helpful as properly. I feel they may beat any a kind of groups. But we have nonetheless bought them at a 5% Cup likelihood, which is seventh general. They’ve appeared good in opposition to contenders these days, however there’s loads of room for skepticism that they belong in the dialog with them in a seven-game playoff collection.”
