Andreas Hale
Multiple Authors
Sebastian Fundora will put his WBC junior middleweight title on the road in opposition to Keith Thurman on Saturday on the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas (Prime Video PPV, 7 p.m. ET).
Fundora (23-1-1, 15 KOs) received the belt with a split decision victory over Tim Tszyu in March 2024 and has since made two profitable defenses, together with a seventh-round TKO in their rematch last July.
At 6-foot-5½ with an 80-inch attain, Fundora presents a singular problem for anybody within the division. While he has the instruments to combat at vary, the southpaw is simply as comfy engaged on the within, the place he makes use of his quantity and physique assault to put on opponents down. He enters the combat as a -380 favourite, in keeping with DraftKings Sportsbook.
Thurman (31-1, 23 KOs), a former unified welterweight champion, has been largely inactive since his split decision loss to Manny Pacquiao in September 2019. He has fought simply twice since then, most just lately in March 2025, when he moved as much as junior middleweight and stopped Brock Jarvis in three rounds — the one ring motion he is seen in more than 4 years.
Still, Thurman’s expertise may very well be an element. At his peak, he confronted most of the finest within the welterweight division. He at all times displayed good footwork, and he’ll have to depend on his motion to keep away from staying in entrance of the a lot taller Fundora. Thurman additionally carries energy in each fingers, together with his overhand proper doubtlessly a key punch in opposition to the rangy champion.
Will Fundora use his dimension, youth and relentless physique assault to interrupt down the veteran? Or can Thurman, the +280 underdog, lean on his expertise and energy to catch Fundora coming in and pull off the upset?
Former champions Shawn Porter, Danny Garcia, and Raul Marquez break down how the combat might unfold and provide their picks.
Editor’s word: Content has been edited for brevity and readability.
Shawn Porter, former welterweight champion
How does Thurman win?
I believe there are a number of paths to victory for Thurman. I want to see him use his motion and, as soon as he is in shut, go to the physique. Then, pivot, step round, lock up, or no matter we have to do to forestall Fundora from getting any punches off. I believe that is a good way to interrupt down Fundora and pressure him to surrender his peak, a weak point we now have seen for many of his profession, up till the final two fights. Thurman can field and transfer his option to a victory.
Thurman can win by knockout. It does not need to be that Brian Mendoza one-punch knockout he used to beat Fundora, though we all know Thurman has that type of energy. People at all times criticize whether or not he had it at 147 and surprise if he has it at 154. Trust me, if he had it at 147, he is bought more energy at 154 and he most likely ought to be preventing at 160. The athleticism units up his energy, and that energy can take out Fundora.
How does Fundora win?
I do not assume Fundora can afford to maintain the combat on the surface and field all evening. While he has the longer arms and the taller body, he does not use them proficiently. He has to pressure the combat to happen in shut quarters and be accountable defensively after he lets his fingers go. I believe that is the one path to success for him. He has to get shut and break Thurman down like he has performed to different opponents. If he does not break him down, the combat is up within the air. This is finally Fundora’s combat to lose.
Who wins?
I at all times root for the B-side, so I believe I’ve Thurman by knockout.
Raul Marquez, former U.S. Olympian and junior middleweight champion, boxing analyst
The matchup
Thurman is 37 years outdated. I keep in mind after I fought for the middleweight title in opposition to Arthur Abraham after I was 37. Abraham was a monster, and I wasn’t the identical. I believe Fundora is that monster for Thurman proper now. Thurman additionally has been inactive. Yes, he is bought quite a lot of expertise preventing prime fighters similar to Manny Pacquiao, Danny Garcia, Shawn Porter, Robert Guerrero, Luis Collazo and Julio Diaz. But I do not see him successful this combat. At 37, while you combat a man like Fundora that I believe has gotten higher and is in his prime, I simply do not see Thurman having that firepower he used to have when he was youthful — largely due to inactivity.
How does Fundora win?
He simply must be himself, use his peak and attain benefits. He has to regulate the vary early on, determine Thurman out and use the jab. Get within the inside and make Thurman work after which break him down. Use physique photographs and uppercuts coming in whereas protecting a quick tempo. He’s preventing an older man that likes to combat at his personal tempo, so do not let him do this. Fundora has superb protection, so he should be prepared for issues that Thurman may very well be organising due to his expertise.
How does Thurman win?
Land “a” punch, get shut. And that is one thing he can do, as a result of Fundora additionally likes to combat shut. I do know Thurman has been engaged on utilizing his distance. Thurman is quick, however I believe Fundora is prepared for that. He has gotten higher because the Brian Mendoza combat; he realized lots from that loss. He’s matured and he is very disciplined. The solely means Thurman can win is that if Fundora makes a mistake and will get careless.
Thurman’s an in-and-out sort of fighter. But he is not going to have legs to try this for 12 rounds with a fighter like Fundora that is coming at him. I believe Thurman’s going to carry him to maintain him lively. He’s going to have to face there and go toe-to-toe in some unspecified time in the future, and that is not going to be his combat as a result of his legs will not be going to be there. The solely factor he might do is land a giant punch utilizing his expertise and choosing his moments. Get inside and catch him from a unique angle. He might catch him at lengthy distance as effectively, but it surely’s bought to be the appropriate punch — the overhand proper or the left hook. He’s bought the ability to drop him, however that is the one means. He’s not going to outpunch Fundora.
Who wins?
Fundora by late-round stoppage. I believe the nook will cease it. I do not assume Thurman can final, particularly at his age. The deeper the combat goes, the more durable it will get for him.
Danny Garcia, former junior welterweight and welterweight champion
How does Fundora win?
Use his youth, apply good strain and hold Thurman on the tip of his punches. Fundora ought to attempt to break the inactive Thurman down. If he does this, I can see him successful by a late TKO.
How does Thurman win?
Take benefit of his expertise. Use fast ft, good and tight protection, frustrate Fundora and attempt to land laborious looping punches. If he does that, he can rating a late-round KO like Mendoza did in opposition to Fundora.
Who wins?
I do not see this combat going the space. Thurman by KO.
