Key occasions
Closing publish
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Oil costs have jumped again above $100 a barrel and world shares fell after weekend talks between the US and Iran ended with out an settlement and Donald Trump imposed a blockade of the strait of Hormuz.
The US president introduced the blockade on Sunday, targeting Iranian vessels and ships which have paid a toll to Iran for passage by the strait, in an try and choke off the circulate of Iranian oil.
US Central Command mentioned it would begin blocking all Iranian Gulf ports and coastal areas from 3pm UK time, in impact seizing management of maritime visitors in the strait of Hormuz.
Trump mentioned on Monday afternoon that ships coming close to the blockade could be “eliminated”, warning Iran to not ship its “fast attack ships”:
Warning: If any of these ships come anyplace near our BLOCKADE, they are going to be instantly ELIMINATED, utilizing the identical system of kill that we use towards the drug sellers on boats at Sea. It is fast and brutal. P.S. 98.2% of Drugs coming into the U.S. by Ocean or Sea have STOPPED!
Oil and gasoline costs rose sharply once more, after the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran introduced on Wednesday prompted a sharp fall in vitality costs, and crude ended the week under the psychologically essential $100 a barrel threshold.
Brent crude rose 6.9% to $$101.74 a barrel on Monday, whereas US crude was up 7.2% at $103.55 a barrel.
Gas costs additionally elevated, with the British wholesale gasoline contract for May hovering by virtually 12% earlier and later up 7.25% at 117.57p per therm.
More right here:
And Goldman Sachs has crushed expectations with its first-quarter outcomes, reporting a rises in profits and higher-than-expected funding banking income.
FTSE 100 closes decrease
After a day dominated by Iran worries, London’s inventory market has closed barely decrease.
The FTSE 100 index of blue-chip share has ended the day down 17.5 factors, or -0.17%, at 10,582 factors.
Utility firms led the fallers, maybe a signal that buyers are dropping their urge for food for ‘defensive stocks’ that may defend them from a market wobble.
Oil firms posted some beneficial properties, with BP up 0.9% and Shell gaining 1.5%.
Pistachio costs hit eight-year excessive as Iran struggle hits provides
The struggle in Iran has pushed costs of pistachios nuts to an eight-year excessive, Bloomberg has reported.
Iran is the world’s second-largest producer of pistachios, they are saying, and the battle is limiting provides.
Bloomberg level out that pistachio consumption has surged globally since pistachio-filled “Dubai chocolate” bars went viral on TikTok and Instagram in 2023. Major meals manufacturers like Häagen-Daz and Táche have added the nut to ice cream and plant-based milk ranges, whereas Starbucks has popularized pistachio-flavored espresso.
This has pushed pistachio costs to $4.57 a pound in March, the very best since May 2018.
Oil drops, briefly, amid Iranian unanium confusion
The markets stay slightly febrile immediately, and headline-driven.
We’ve simply seen an instance – oil briefly fell under $100 a barrel, following a information flash that “IRANIAN OFFICIALS ARE STUDYING ABANDONING URANIUM ENRICHMENT AS A U.S. CONDITION FOR ENDING THE WAR”.
That declare was attributed to the New York Post – and it seems to return from the Post’s overseas coverage reporter Caitlin Doornbos.
However, that’s not exaactly what she wrote.
Actually, Doornbos posted on X:
Iranian officers are nonetheless contemplating the US proposal to finish the struggle, centered round giving up uranium enrichment.
One factor affecting why Iran couldn’t make a deal whereas US was in Islamabad: whereas Vance known as Trump 6+ occasions, Iranians couldn’t name their closing decision-maker again in Tehran attributable to safety dangers — and sure would have needed to return dwelling to debate an settlement in individual, a Pakistani analyst instructed me.
And as she posts in a second message (after the markets bought excited), the uranium line isn’t new!
This took off unnecessarily, and now I’ve a duty to make clear. All I meant was: 1) The proposal centered on Iran giving up its nuclear program — that we knew from Vice President JD Vance on Sunday. 2) It’s nonetheless a risk that Iran may settle for that time. None of that is new (which is why I haven’t revealed something on it.)
Brent crude has now inched again to $101 a barrel, as merchants settle down.
Donald Trump has warned Iran to not attempt to breach the brand new US blockade.
Posting on Truth Social, he says:
Iran’s Navy is laying on the backside of the ocean, fully obliterated – 158 ships. What we now have not hit are their small quantity of, what they name, “fast attack ships,” as a result of we didn’t contemplate them a lot of a menace.
Warning: If any of these ships come anyplace near our BLOCKADE, they are going to be instantly ELIMINATED, utilizing the identical system of kill that we use towards the drug sellers on boats at Sea. It is fast and brutal. P.S. 98.2% of Drugs coming into the U.S. by Ocean or Sea have STOPPED!
Thank you in your consideration to this matter. President DJT
Goldman boss ‘conscious’of Anthropic’s Mythos AI’s powers
Kalyeena Makortoff
Goldman boss David Solomon has performed down considerations over Anthropic’s Mythos AI mannequin, regardless of being half of a group of banking chiefs summoned to the US Treasury in Washington final week to debate potential cyber dangers and threats to monetary stability.
He instructed analysts on an earnings name that the financial institution was “hyperaware of the enhanced capabilities of these models” and was working with each the US authorities and tech companies to evaluate them.
However, the CEO mentioned it was “part of our ongoing capabilities that we have been investing in and are accelerating our investment in,” including:
“We’re conscious of Mythos and its capabilities. We have the mannequin, we’re working carefully with Anthropic, and all of our safety distributors, to form of harness frontier capabilities wherever it’s attainable.
And this may proceed to be an essential focus. But it’s not new…know-how evolves, we now have to proceed to improve for cyber danger and ensure we’re on the forefront of that.”
Kalyeena Makortoff
Goldman Sachs’ CEO David Solomon additionally defended the financial institution’s involvement in the non-public credit score market, saying that the financial institution noticed an rise in funding at a time when rivals have suffered a surge in withdrawal requests from jittery purchasers.
He steered half of the surge in withdrawal requests at some rivals – which have compelled some private credit lenders like Blue Owl to cap redemptions – was primarily pushed by retail buyers (we’re speaking excessive internet value purchasers right here) slightly than institutional buyers who have been holding their floor.
Solomon instructed analysts that institutional buyers – banks, insurance coverage firms, and pension funds – made up round 40% of the brand new funding in Goldman’s non-public credit score funds throughout the first quarter (which led to a 7% internet enhance in general funding throughout the three months to March).
“I know the media headlines have driven an enormous amount of negative sentiment around private credit. You know, my own view is it’s important to really distinguish between different markets and really try to put it all in perspective.”
“There obviously are high redemptions in certain pure managed funds. These peer managed funds have been concentrated in retail outflows as opposed to institutional outflows. And one of the things that we’re seeing that’s just interesting, that’s quite constructive for our business, is that spreads are becoming more lender friendly”
He added:
“Our 30 year track record of performance and private credit is characterised by rigorous underwriting, selective deployment, and disciplined portfolio construction”
Goldman’s Solomon: 2026 started with optimism, earlier than Iran struggle
Kalyeena Makortoff
Goldman Sachs’ CEO David Solomon has cheered the bank’s Q1 earnings, saying “elevated uncertainty” attributable to the Iran struggle, AI jitters and personal credit score fears led to a surge in buying and selling and demand for its funding banking companies.
Solomon instructed analysts that the surroundings had modified considerably because the flip of the brand new 12 months:
“2026 started with a diploma of optimism. Markets hit report highs and confidence continued to construct, with most purchasers centered on progress, strategic exercise, and capital deployment. As we’ve mentioned, issues have been solely shifting a straight line, and as the quarter progressed, the macro surroundings began to weigh on sentiment.
“Volatility increased meaningfully amid concerns around AI driven disruption in sectors like software. Heightened uncertainty in parts of private credit, and the conflict in the Middle East.”
With Wall Street opening in the pink, Tom Stevenson, funding director at Fidelity International says:
“A weariness is setting in as buyers more and more select to attend and see whereas tensions in the Gulf ebb and circulate. With sentiment having swung forwards and backwards because the starting of March, however markets remaining at or barely above the place they began the 12 months, no-one is prepared to take huge bets till it is clearer the place the US-Israel-Iran battle is heading.
“Meanwhile, firms and households are getting on with their lives, acclimatising to what appears to be like like a persistently increased oil price, rising inflation and better for longer rates of interest. This week, the US reporting spherical will get underway as soon as extra, with first quarter outcomes shining a mild on how geo-politics is displaying up on the coalface of enterprise and the broader financial system.
Wall Street opens in the pink
The New York inventory market has begun the brand new week with losses.
Wall Street’s principal indexes have opened decrease, after final weekend’s talks between the US and Iran didn’t ship a deal to finish the struggle.
With optimism of an early finish to the battle fading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped by 368 factors, or 0.77%, to 47,548 in early buying and selling.
The broader S&P 500 index is down 0.3%, whereas the tech-focused Nasdaq has misplaced 0.35%
Opec lowers second-quarter world oil demand forecast
Opec, the oil cartel, has predicted that demand for crude will drop in the second quarter of this 12 months, however then rebound.
Opec has lowered its forecast for world oil demand in the second quarter by 500,000 barrels per day.
However, for 2026 as a entire, world oil demand continues to be forecast to develop by a wholesome 1.4 million barrels per day – unchanged on final month’s forecast – pushed virtually totally by demand from non-OECD areas, primarily China, India and Other Asia.
Opec says:
The slight transitory weak point in oil demand progress in 2Q26, given the continuing developments in the Middle East, is anticipated to be compensated for in 3Q26 and 4Q26.
Oil continues to be bobbing above $100 a barrel, as the 3pm BST deadline for the US’s blockade of the strait of Hormuz approaches.
Brent crude is 7.5% increased immediately at $102.31 a barrel.
While there may be disappointment that the US-Iran talks broke up final weekend, there may be additionally some optimism that the ceasefire introduced final week is holding.
Paul Diggle, chief economist, at Aberdeen, says:
For all that it is in risk-off mode this morning, the market is arguably nonetheless taking a “glass half full” interpretation of the outlook.
Perhaps a single spherical of talks ought to by no means have been anticipated to yield speedy outcomes. The progress was the in-person talks occurring in any respect.
The US blockade might carry not simply financial stress on Iran, but additionally diplomatic stress from China (the vacation spot of a giant share of Gulf vitality exports, together with what had nonetheless been flowing from Iran). China apparently performed an essential half in pressuring Iran to the negotiations final week.
The ceasefire itself continues to be holding for now, though it’s clearly extraordinarily fragile.
Union: Make UK public transport free to assist with value of residing squeeze
UK transport and journey union TSSA is looking on the federal government to take speedy motion to assist the general public with the bounce in the fee of residing because of the Iran struggle.
This contains making public transport free on the level of use for the subsequent 12 months.
TSSA normal secretary Maryam Eslamdoust explains:
“Yet once more Donald Trump’s recklessness over Iran is having an impact of world oil costs which can in flip hit our communities right here at dwelling actually laborious.
“We are going through into a main financial disaster of Washington’s making at a time in which many individuals are already actually combating the fee of residing.
“Not solely ought to our authorities be finishing up the work of diplomacy to assist discover a answer to the battle however it’s important that Ministers act at once to take critical measures to assist individuals right here at dwelling.
“Making public transport free on the level of use for the subsequent twelve months would supply individuals with the help they want and in addition act as a large financial stimulus.
“Not only that, but the Prime Minister should also convene regular COBRA meetings examining the full range of measures which can help people with their bills and consider setting up a national Cost of Living Taskforce.”
Although Goldman Sachs has crushed revenue forecasts, its share are down 4.5% in pre-market buying and selling.
Traders might be involved that Goldman’s revenues from Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities (FICC) fell by 10% in the primary quarter.
Axel Rudolph, chief technical analyst at investing and buying and selling platform IG, says immediately’s outcomes have didn’t “pique investors’ attention”
“Goldman Sachs has delivered a stable set of numbers, however in this surroundings ‘solid’ isn’t fairly sufficient to maintain buyers . The power in equities buying and selling and dealmaking reveals that the machine continues to be firing on all cylinders, but the drop in FICC revenues is a reminder that this isn’t a one-way road, particularly with markets being buffeted by the Iran struggle.
After such a robust run in the share price, buyers have been clearly searching for one thing distinctive, not simply good. The larger concern is that Goldman’s outcomes really feel like a snapshot of a world which will already be fading. With oil costs surging, inflation fears constructing and recession dangers creeping again in, the outlook for dealmaking and capital markets exercise turns into far much less sure.
In that context, immediately’s numbers danger being seen as near peak earnings, and it’s little shock that buyers have opted to take some cash off the desk.”
Reuters: US navy to implement blockade in Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, be aware to seafarers
The US Central Command have instructed seafarers that the US navy will implement a blockade in the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea east of the Strait of Hormuz, utilized to all vessel visitors regardless of flag.
A be aware seen by Reuters additionally confirms that the blockade would come into impact at 1400 GMT immediately, or 3pm UK time.
The be aware says:
“Any vessel getting into or departing the blockaded space with out authorization is topic to interception, diversion, and seize.
“The blockade will not impede neutral transit passage through the Strait of Hormuz to or from non-Iranian destinations.”
The blockade “encompasses the entirety of the Iranian coastline to include but not limited to ports and oil terminals”, the be aware mentioned, including that humanitarian shipments together with meals, medical provides, and different important items could be permitted, topic to inspection.
Goldman Sachs warns of ‘very advanced’ geopolitical panorama, as profits rise
Goldman Sachs has grown its profits in the primary quarter of this 12 months, a interval which included the primary month of the US-Iran struggle.
The Wall Street titan has reported earnings per frequent share of $17.55 for the primary quarter of 2026, up from $14.12 in the primary quarter of 2025 and $14.01 in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Goldman’s internet earnings rose to $5.63bn for the primary quarter to 31 March 31, up from $4.74bn a 12 months in the past, whereas internet revenues got here in at $17.23bn.
Reuters says:
The heightened volatility throughout asset courses has pushed up the necessity for purchasers to reassess portfolios and hedge draw back dangers, a observe that usually buoys buying and selling desks at giant banks.
The bounce in profits was partly attributable to a 48% bounce in funding banking charges, which Goldman says mirrored “a significant increase in completed mergers and acquisitions volumes” in the quarter.
Asset & wealth administration revenues rose by 10% year-on-year, as a rise in property beneath administration led to increased charges.
David Solomon, chairman and Ceo of Goldman Sachs, says:
“Goldman Sachs delivered very strong performance for our shareholders this quarter, even as market conditions became more volatile. Our clients continue to depend on us for high quality execution and insights amid the broader uncertainty, and we remain confident in how we’ve positioned our businesses. The geopolitical landscape remains very complex – so disciplined risk management must remain core to how we operate.”
Lauren Almeida
The lodging reservation web site Booking.com has suffered a information breach with “unauthorised parties” getting access to prospects’ particulars.
The platform mentioned it “noticed some suspicious activity involving unauthorised third parties being able to access some of our guests’ booking information”.
“Upon discovering the activity, we took action to contain the issue,” it mentioned. “We have updated the pin number for these reservations and informed our guests.”
The firm, which is headquartered in Amsterdam, lists greater than 30m lodging venues all over the world and says it connects “millions of travellers” with experiences, transport and locations to remain.
UK petrol and diesel will increase ‘have virtually floor to a halt’
After rising because the Iran struggle started, UK petrol and diesel costs lastly all-but-stopped rising immediately.
The RAC reviews that the typical price of a litre of diesel is 191.50p immediately, up from 191.31p on Friday.
Petrol aso rose very barely to 158.27p a litre, up from 158.16p on Friday.
RAC head of coverage Simon Williams says that “while pump prices have technically risen for a record 43 straight days, the increases have almost ground to a halt” after oil fell traded under $100 a barrel final week.
Williams added, although:
If the oil price was to return up once more this week, any hopes of slight forecourt reductions will inevitably disappear.”
