The WNBA All-Star break is right here, and whereas the festivities in Chicago dominate social media, I’m wanting to the futures market to select a couple of high-value bets going into the second half of the season.
The two key issues to consider at this break are the looming commerce deadline and discovering consumers to again and sellers to fade, together with how gamers recovering from accidents might have totally different information subsequent week than we at present worth in now.
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These are two wagers I feel are price attacking proper now in the market.
The Liberty have underperformed by their first 27 video games this season.
This crew had the highest preseason win complete and shortest future odds, however at present sits seventh in the standings with a file of simply 15-12. However, their early-season woes are primarily due to a stockpile of accidents that appear to be clearing up. I feel the All Star break got here at the good time for this crew, and you’ll by no means discover a higher time to again them for the remainder of the season.
Jonquel Jones had offseason surgical procedure and got here in rusty; Sabrina Ionescu has missed time with foot and again points; Satou Sabally was a marquee signing this offseason, however missed time to begin the season with a cyst and is at present with a concussion. Finally, key position gamers in Leonie Fiebich and Marine Johannes are nonetheless each at present coping with left foot/ankle accidents.
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Coach Chris DeMarco dropped excellent news on Sabally and Fiebich going into the break, saying each are progressing and anticipated again quickly. Ionescu and Jones have each acknowledged they lastly really feel nice. If this crew returns to full well being, it’s simply the most proficient roster in the WNBA, and the principal query will probably be if they will put the items collectively quick sufficient. Ionescu, Stewart, Jones and Fiebich have already received a title collectively, and including Sabally is a large improve for the fifth starter.
I additionally anticipate the Liberty to stay in purchaser mode at the Aug. 2 deadline. If expertise presents itself on the market, the Liberty will not be scared to pounce and usher in much more star energy.
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While they venture to be a playoff street crew, the WNBA modified the schedule to be 1-1-1 for home-court benefit as a substitute of 2-1, and the Liberty will probably be larger house favorites and shorter street underdogs than any opponent they might draw. Heck, they might even be favored each sport, including the street environments.
Gabby Williams (Golden State) to win Defensive Player of the Year (+110)
This is a straightforward case of the finest defensive participant being on the finest defensive crew.
Williams is all the time taking the opposing crew’s hardest task and the Golden State Valkyries lock down defensively with exceptional consistency. Williams can be extremely versatile and good, she will change on the perimeter, go over towards ball screens, guard larger relying on the task and appears to all the time make the proper determination. There have already been a number of situations the place in the previous few minutes of shut video games she will get game-sealing steals that lead to layups to ice a Valkyries win.
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The different issue right here is the area. Natasha Howard is at present second in the operating at +250, however she is a candidate I’d put the truthful odds a lot decrease. Howard has sturdy superior analytics, however the Minnesota Lynx simply welcomed again Napheesa Collier to the lineup, and he or she can be one among the finest defenders in the league. The credit score goes to be divided up amongst a number of gamers for the Lynx going ahead.
Third is A’ja Wilson of the Aces. Barring harm, she is a lock to win her fifth WNBA MVP. Last season, she took house each MVP and co-Defensive Player of the Year with Alanna Smith. While Wilson’s on/off impression defensively is powerful, Las Vegas‘ protection general ranks ninth out of 15 groups in the WNBA. They are a below-average protection, and he or she is a main candidate for voter fatigue.
Lastly, the Valkyries could be consumers trying to find perimeter offense at the commerce deadline, most notably being linked to Los Angeles Sparks All-Star Kelsey Plum. If one other offensive punch enters the Valkyries rotation, Williams will shine extra defensively as she will probably be tasked with some extra heavy lifting.
While Williams is the present chalk candidate, it ought to be nearer to -150 proper now than +110.
