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UFC Vegas 116: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal continues on the prelims with a combat between Francis Marshall and Lucas Brennan within the featherweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Marshall-Brennan prediction and pick.
Francis Marshall (9-3) has been on a rollercoaster experience of late, dropping a controversial break up choice to Mairon Santos at UFC 313 in March 2025 earlier than bouncing again with a dominant first-round submission win over Erik Silva by way of rear-naked choke at UFC Fight Night in Mexico City in February 2026. “The Fire” appears to be like to construct momentum and set up some much-needed consistency as he comes into his combat this weekend towards Lucas Brennan.
Lucas Brennan (11-2) enters the Octagon for the primary time driving back-to-back first-round rear-naked choke finishes over Austin Coleman and Joshua Weems on the Texas regional circuit in 2025, bouncing again robust after consecutive losses to Dimitre Ivy (PFL) and Mauricio Gomez (Fury FC) in 2024. The 25-year-old “Skywalker” went a dominant 9-0 inside Bellator, ending eight of these opponents, eight of his 11 profession wins coming by submission, as he comes into his combat this weekend towards Francis Marshall.
UFC Vegas 116 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 116 Odds: Francis Marshall-Lucas Brennan Odds
Francis Marshall: -550
Lucas Brennan: +410
Over 2.5 rounds: -120
Under 2.5 rounds: -110
Why Francis Marshall Will Win
Francis Marshall enters this combat with a major expertise benefit, having already competed six occasions contained in the UFC Octagon towards established competitors. (*116*) seasoning alone might show to be the distinction in what figures to be a high-paced featherweight scrap.
Marshall’s submission recreation is elite, boasting 4 submission victories on his general file, which straight counters Brennan’s id as a grappler. If Brennan appears to be like to tug this combat to the mat, he could also be strolling into Marshall’s wheelhouse.
“The Fire” has additionally proven a capability to dictate the place fights occur, retaining opponents uncomfortable on the toes with sharp putting mixtures. A combat that stays standing might expose Brennan’s relative lack of high-level UFC competitors on his résumé.
Brennan, whereas unquestionably gifted at 11-2, is making his UFC debut on simply 5 days’ discover, a large ask for any fighter no matter their talent degree. Short-notice debuts at this degree have derailed many promising prospects earlier than they even get began.
Marshall, regardless of his losses, has been battle-tested towards ranked competitors and is aware of how you can handle adversity within the cage. (*116*) psychological edge and Octagon IQ ought to carry him to a end inside three rounds.
Why Lucas Brennan Will Win
Lucas Brennan arrives on quick discover, however do not let that idiot you, a 11-2 file with eight submission finishes tells the story of a fighter who’s harmful each second he is within the cage. His relentless grappling strain has smothered opponents at each degree he is competed at.
Marshall has proven actual vulnerability on the bottom all through his profession, and Brennan is exactly the kind of fighter constructed to show that weak spot. Once “Skywalker” will get a physique lock or secures a takedown, his ending price suggests he not often lets alternatives slip away.
Brennan’s youth and power at 25 years outdated may be a major issue, as he brings recent legs and an aggressive, high-pace model that has overwhelmed opponents constantly. Marshall has struggled at occasions to take care of his output over three rounds towards strain fighters.
Short-notice conditions can really gasoline hungry prospects, stripping away overthinking and forcing a pure, instinct-driven efficiency. Brennan has nothing to lose entering into the Octagon for his UFC debut, which makes him a genuinely harmful opponent.
Marshall’s three losses additionally trace at a fighter who could be cracked beneath the correct strain. Brennan’s mixture of elite grappling, youth, and fearlessness might make Saturday evening his coming-out social gathering on the largest stage in MMA.
Final Francis Marshall-Lucas Brennan Prediction & Pick
This combat has all of the makings of a compelling grappling chess match, with each males possessing legit submission credentials and the power to complete at any second. However, expertise contained in the Octagon is in the end going to be the deciding issue right here.
Marshall’s six UFC bouts have sharpened his means to handle distance, management tempo, and keep away from the type of scrambles that get youthful fighters in bother. Brennan, for all his expertise, is entering into a totally totally different ambiance on 5 days’ discover.
Look for Marshall to make use of his footwork early, retaining the combat standing and choosing Brennan aside with crisp mixtures earlier than trying for his personal takedown alternatives within the later rounds. Brennan could have his moments, however Marshall’s Octagon IQ ought to preserve him out of great hazard.
The pick right here is Francis Marshall by third-round rear-naked choke, as Brennan’s gasoline tank begins to fade and Marshall smells blood. Marshall improves to 10-3 general and eventually strings collectively back-to-back wins contained in the UFC.
Final Francis Marshall-Lucas Brennan Prediction & Pick: Francis Marshall (-550), Under 2.5 Rounds (-110)
UFC Vegas 116: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal continues on the prelims with a combat between Francis Marshall and Lucas Brennan within the featherweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds collection for our Marshall-Brennan prediction and pick.
