Welcome again to Week 1 of our Patience or Panic collection, the place we check out three struggling gamers and present suggestions on how it is best to react to their sluggish begins and subpar efficiency. You may be asking, “Isn’t it a bit early to be panicking?” You’d be proper, largely. There are just a few stats that stabilize shortly. We’ll be these to see if there are early warning indicators for strugglers.
Kyle Manzardo, 1B, Cleveland Guardians
Kyle Manzardo acquired his first actual likelihood as a full-time starter final yr, and he didn’t disappoint. In 531 PA, he posted a .234/.313/.455 slash with 27 HR, a 25.4% Ok%, 9.0% BB%, and 113 wRC+. There was some hope that he might convey these AVG and OBP numbers as much as go together with these robust energy numbers. The early outcomes haven’t been good.
In 17 PA, he has reached base 3 occasions and has 10 Ok. That’s a .176 OBP, 58.8% Ok%, and -9 wRC+. Is this an early indicator of a tough season forward?
Manzardo’s O-Swing%, Contact%, and Swinging Strike% have all gone in damaging instructions.
Source: FanGraphs
However, as you’ll be able to see, they largely would’ve been blips on final season’s line graph.
Verdict: Patience, largely. It’s tough to present a special verdict so early within the season. A rule of thumb for SwStr% is to double it to get an anticipated Ok%. A 33% Ok% (his SwStr% is 16.5%) could be very regarding over a protracted stretch, however that would simply be corrected with so few PA. We ought to keep watch over his Plate Discipline numbers, although. If they continue to be at these early-season ranges, I’d begin to panic.
Josh Naylor, 1B, Seattle Mariners
Naylor has established himself as an above-average 1B, posting wRC+s of at the very least 118 for 4 straight seasons. He signed a 5 yr, $92 million contract with Seattle this offseason. It has not began properly.
In 18 PA he has a .000/.167/.000 slash and -47 WRC+. Should we be involved?
His O-Swing% is up 10 factors, and his Z-Contact% is down 8 factors. His different Plate Discipline numbers monitor with the previous few seasons. He’s chasing an excessive amount of, however I wouldn’t be involved about that this early.
However, a extra regarding pattern could also be occurring.
Source: Baseball Savant
Despite his stunning SB numbers final yr, Naylor will not be identified for his athleticism. Players can start to indicate indicators of age beginning of their late 20s, and Naylor will flip 29 in just a few months.
Verdict: Some Panic. Put this regular decline in Bat Speed on a really sluggish participant (that doesn’t appear to handle himself bodily), and I change into a bit involved that Naylor could also be within the early levels of bodily decline. That’s most likely not the case, but it surely makes me extra uneasy than I’d’ve anticipated so early.
Brent Rooker, OF/DH, Athletics
Brent Rooker had a late breakout with the Athletics at age 28 in 2023. From 2023-2025 in 1,839 PA he posted a .268/.343/.509 triple slash, 99 HR, 27.4% Ok%, 9.4% BB%, and 137 wRC+.
2026 has not been so pleasant.
In 13 PA he has reached base as soon as and struck out 8 occasions. Is he declining in his age 31 season?
He has an absurdly dangerous 80.0% O-Swing%, 39.3% Contact%, and 45.9% SwStr%. This is the definition of being “lost.”
Verdict: Patience, however monitor. Rooker’s Bat Speed stays unchanged and I refuse to place any inventory in Plate Discipline numbers after 13 PA, even 13 horrible PA. Obviously, his Plate Discipline numbers can’t probably stay so horrible (until he’s gone blind in each eyes), however he could have taken a step again on this division. Keep a watch on them. This might change to Panic in the event that they don’t drastically enhance.
