Donald Trump has mentioned the US may take Iran’s Kharg, a small island within the north of the Persian Gulf.
The five-mile-long coral island – twice the scale of London’s Heathrow Airport – lies 16 miles (26km) from Iran’s coast and roughly 300 miles (483km) north of the Strait of Hormuz, the very important waterway by which 20% of worldwide oil flows, which Tehran has shut down.
It is Iran’s essential oil terminal within the Persian Gulf and in current feedback to the Financial Times, President Trump mentioned his “favourite thing is to take the oil in Iran”.
He added: “Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t. We have a lot of options. It would also mean we had to be there [in Kharg Island] for a while.
“I do not suppose they’ve any defence. We may take it very simply.”
Iran latest – follow live updates
It is not the primary time Mr Trump has set his sights on Kharg Island.
In mid-March he claimed US forces “obliterated” navy targets on the island, however considerably mentioned he selected to not “wipe out” the oil infrastructure. He threatened that this might change if Iran interfered with the secure passage of ships by the strait.
Tehran warned on the time of a brand new degree of retaliation if the oil infrastructure on Kharg was broken, vowing that Iranian forces would destroy the oil and gasoline infrastructure of firms cooperating with the US within the area if its websites have been focused, in accordance with Iranian state media.
So why is the island so vital and what may occur if Mr Trump tries to take it?
Kharg Island. Pic: Planet Labs PBC through AP
Critical to funding of Iranian authorities
The island has lengthy been seen as a key vulnerability that will provoke a extreme response by Tehran if attacked.
Kharg is vital to funding Iran’s authorities and navy, and if Iran have been to lose management of the island, it might be troublesome for the nation to perform, in accordance with Petras Katinas, an power researcher on the Royal United Services Institute.
Mr Katinas mentioned a takeover would give the US leverage over negotiations with Iran as a result of the island is “the main node” of its financial system.
While there was hypothesis the US may very well be tempted to grab Kharg Island, consultants say that will virtually definitely require troops on the bottom, making it extraordinarily dangerous.
File pic: Abedin Taherkenareh/EPA/Shutterstock
One Iranian politician has reportedly already threatened US troops with seize in the event that they try and seize its essential oil hub.
JP Morgan’s international commodity analysis group burdened the broader financial implications of a direct strike on the island, warning strikes would “immediately halt the bulk of Iran’s crude exports, likely triggering severe retaliation in the Strait of Hormuz or against regional energy infrastructure”.
“You take out Kharg infrastructure, then you take two million [barrels per day] out of the market for good – not until the Straits get fixed,” added Dan Pickering, chief funding officer for Pickering Energy Partners.
Oil exports persevering with regardless of struggle
In the week earlier than the struggle broke out, Kharg shipped a report 3.79 million barrels per day, and operations on the island have continued regardless of the battle.
About 13.7 million barrels of oil have been exported from the island because the US-Israeli strikes have been launched on 28 February, at a price of 1.1 million to 1.5 million barrels per day, in accordance with maritime intelligence firm TankerTrackers.com and Kpler information.
Kharg has storage tanks within the south, together with housing for hundreds of employees. It has a storage capability of roughly 30 million barrels, and held about 18 million barrels of crude as of early March, in accordance with a JP Morgan report citing Kpler information.
Why Trump held off focusing on oil infrastructure
After strikes in mid-March, Iranian state media reported that no oil infrastructure on the island was broken, including that air defences, a naval base, airport management tower, and a helicopter hangar have been focused.
The US Central Command additionally claimed it had “successfully struck” greater than 90 navy targets, together with naval mine storage amenities and missile storage bunkers.
The 55 crude oil storage tanks, which may maintain greater than 34 million barrels, are “most likely unscathed”, in accordance with Tanker Trackers.
Kharg is the export terminal for 90% of Iran’s oil shipments and has the capability to load round seven million barrels a day.
Before the struggle, the island dealt with most of Iran’s roughly 1.7 million barrels of crude exports per day, with nearly all of it going to China.
Iranian oil accounts for 11.6% of China’s seaborne imports so far in 2026, in accordance with tanker tracker Kpler. “Therefore, if [Mr Trump] was to take that out, he might risk the ire of China,” Sky News’ military analyst Sean Bell mentioned.
Hitting Kharg’s oil infrastructure would additionally seemingly result in oil costs surging even additional. As of 30 March, a barrel of Brent crude, the benchmark for oil costs, was near a four-year excessive, costing $115.54.
It represents a close to 60% worth enhance since earlier than the struggle broke out.
However, in accordance with the Washington Post, the US is making ready a floor invasion of Iran. Troops on the bottom would make it far simpler for the Trump administration to attempt to take Kharg.
It reported any operation would “fall short of a full-scale invasion” and plans may contain raids by Special Operations and traditional infantry troops.
What may occur if Trump takes Kharg?
If Mr Trump does resolve to commit US forces to seizing Kharg Island, there are two very totally different colleges of considered the way it may go.
“If the plan is to win a war against Iran, then taking Kharg Island should be one of the central missions of the conflict,” Francis A Galgano, a former US military lieutenant colonel who is now a professor of navy geography at Villanova University, instructed Sky’s US associate community NBC News.
“It provides the US with enormous leverage in any negotiations and it’s a ‘stick’ to force the Iranians to stop attacking shipping.”
Christian Emery, an affiliate professor specialising in US-Iran relations at University College London, mentioned Mr Trump confronted a “real risk of [the conflict] spiralling into a far more dangerous” one.
He instructed NBC that Kharg is lower than 20 miles from the Iranian mainland, properly inside rocket, artillery and drone vary.
Even if the US did seize the island, “holding the position would be extremely challenging”, he mentioned.
“[It] would be an absolutely disastrous decision that would ensure the conflict lasted many months,” he added.
Read extra:
Israel expands invasion in southern Lebanon
Has the island been focused earlier than?
Despite being considered as a vital vulnerability, the island has not often been straight focused.
The final time was throughout the Iran-Iraq struggle within the Eighties, however it didn’t cease crude oil exports from Kharg.
“When Saddam Hussein raided the island numerous times 40 years ago and destroyed a number of storage tanks, Kharg Island was still able to export over 1.5 million barrels per day,” Tanker Trackers mentioned in a submit on X.
