Virginia is sadly all too acquainted with double-digit seed Cinderellas. The ghosts of UMBC, Ohio, and Furman nonetheless hang-out the minds of the Cavalier trustworthy to this present day. So, it’s truthful to method UVA’s first-round opponent with warning and take an actual have a look at what Wright State brings into this matchup.
The No. 14 seed Raiders received the Horizon League event by erasing a 12-point deficit to beat Detroit Mercy 66-63 within the title sport. That got here after they put up 105 factors within the semifinals. Wright State enters Friday at 23-11 general and 15-5 in league play, having received eight of its final 10 and 18 of its final 22.
The Raiders can rating. Wright State averages 80.5 factors per sport and shoots 48.9 p.c from the sector. Michael Cooper leads them at 13.3 factors per sport. TJ Burch provides 11.8 factors and three.5 assists. Solomon Callaghan shoots 39.8 p.c from three, and Dominic Pangonis is at 38.2 p.c from deep. If the sport will get unfastened, Wright State has sufficient backcourt scoring and capturing to make Virginia uncomfortable.
But Wright State isn’t the everyday upset-minded mid-major that lives virtually solely on the three-point line. The Raiders shoot 36.1% (forty ninth) from deep and 54.5% (74th) from two, but solely a few third of their makes an attempt come from past the arc. This isn’t a staff attempting to bomb its approach right into a miracle. Wright State performs a extra bodily model of basketball.
Wright State can definitely rating the basketball, however trying into how they’re constructed tells a extra full story. Their foremost inside items are 6-foot-7 senior Michael Imariagbe and 6-foot-9 freshman Kellen Pickett. Imariagbe averages 11.9 factors and 6.9 rebounds whereas capturing 58.4 p.c from the ground. Pickett provides 8.3 factors, 5.4 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks per sport.
That is what makes this a special form of Cinderella candidate. As a staff, Wright State has a 7.5 p.c block charge, thirty ninth nationally, and averages 4.4 blocks per sport, forty fourth within the nation.
In different phrases, Wright State has typically out-muscled Horizon League groups. The Raiders drive the ball, end via contact, and defend the paint on the opposite finish. In their league, they’ve typically been the enforcer.
That is the a part of the matchup I preserve coming again to, as a result of Virginia isn’t constructed like the common first-round opponent. UVA enters the event as one of the best shot-blocking staff within the nation. Johann Grünloh is 7-foot and averages 2.2 blocks per sport. Ugonna Onyenso can be 7-foot and leads the ACC at 3.0 blocks per sport. As a staff, Virginia leads the NCAA with 6.5 blocks per sport and is second within the ACC in rebounding at 40.2.
So, if the query is whether or not Wright State can preserve doing what it normally does across the rim, the reply might be not. Wright State’s identification has been constructed partly on superior dimension and physicality on the mid-major degree. However, Virginia might be one of the best geared up staff within the nation to fight this fashion of sport plan.
We have seen some proof of that towards higher competitors. Wright State misplaced 94-69 at Butler, 77-67 at California, and 83-76 at residence to Miami (OH). Those outcomes don’t imply the Raiders are fraudulent. They do recommend that when the extent of dimension and athleticism rises, the margin for error will get thinner.
And that’s the actual story of this sport. Wright State isn’t a basic Cinderella that survives on weirdness. It survives on fundamentals and power. The drawback is that Virginia has the precise form of entrance line that may take these benefits away. When Imariagbe rolls, posts, or assaults the glass, he’s working into two legit 7-foot shot blockers. When Pickett tries to erase issues on the rim, he’s now contesting ACC dimension as an alternative of Horizon dimension.
That is why this matchup appears to be like higher for Virginia than the seed line alone may recommend. Wright State’s strengths occur to line up with areas the place UVA is already sturdy. The Cavaliers are first within the ACC in blocks, second in rebounding, second in field-goal proportion protection at 39.5 p.c, third in scoring protection at 68.4 factors allowed, and third in three-point protection at 30.9 p.c. This is a protection constructed to shut out on shooters and funnel drivers towards the dual towers of Grünloh and Onyenso.
That doesn’t imply Virginia can calm down. Wright State nonetheless has sufficient shot-making to make the sport uncomfortable. Burch averages 2.6 steals per sport and might velocity up a possession or spark a run. Cooper can get sizzling. Callaghan and Pangonis each shoot effectively sufficient that over-helping turns into harmful. If Virginia will get sloppy with the ball or lets Wright State settle in from three, this will flip into a type of depressing NCAA Tournament afternoons Cavalier followers know all too effectively.
Still, this appears like a sport that ought to be determined by the place the ground shrinks. Wright State desires to play via contact, end on the rim, and use its dimension to set the tone. Virginia is uniquely positioned to take that away. And, not like some UVA groups of the previous, this one isn’t asking its protection to hold an anemic offense. The Cavaliers common 80.9 factors per sport, rank fourth within the ACC in assists, and have a number of methods to attain. Thijs De Ridder leads the staff at 15.5 factors per sport, Dallin Hall runs the offense at 4.3 assists per sport, and Virginia is capturing 35.9 p.c from three as a staff.
So, sure, Wright State is nice sufficient to be taken severely. A staff that scores 80 a sport, shoots higher than 36 p.c from three, and arrives with confidence ought to by no means be dismissed in March. But this matchup is difficult for the Raiders in a really particular approach. What has made them look huge and forceful within the Horizon League might not look almost as imposing when the again line is Grünloh and Onyenso.
