A number of weeks in the past the Minnesota Timberwolves have been sitting in the six seed, hovering in that uncomfortable place the place you’re ok to consider one thing larger may occur, however shut sufficient to the Play-In line that each loss looks like slipping on black ice.
After a powerful stretch to complete February and start March, the Wolves discover themselves tied for the three spot. That’s a reasonably spectacular climb contemplating how crowded the West has been all season. But earlier than anybody begins planning hypothetical second-round matchups or debating which playoff opponent can be “most favorable,” it’s price remembering one easy reality about this Western Conference:
Despite their latest robust play, the Wolves didn’t precisely dash their method into the three spot. February set the desk for them superbly. The schedule was comparatively forgiving. There weren’t many heavyweight matchups. It was the type of stretch the place a targeted workforce might have ripped off a monster run and put some actual daylight between themselves and groups like the Rockets or Nuggets.
Instead, the Wolves did what the Wolves are likely to do. They dropped video games they shouldn’t have. They coasted by means of moments that demanded urgency. They didn’t fairly stack the avalanche of wins that the schedule provided them. But to their credit score, they largely turned issues round, permitting them to achieve floor and, for a short second, maintain sole possession of that coved three seed.
The actual query now isn’t how they acquired there.
It’s whether or not they can keep there.
Wolves Fans Are Optimistic
We not too long ago requested the Canis Hoopus trustworthy the place they suppose the Wolves will in the end end in the standings, and let’s simply say Minnesota followers are feeling fairly good about issues.
The overwhelming majority of respondents consider the Wolves will in the end maintain the three seed. A smaller chunk expects them to slide barely to fourth. A really tiny share sees them touchdown in fifth.
And the sixth seed? The Play-In?
Whether it’s justified or not stays to be seen, however it does replicate one thing actual about this workforce. The Wolves have earned a sure degree of belief over the previous two seasons. They’ve constructed a popularity for getting stronger late in the yr, constructing momentum heading into the postseason, after which delivering when the lights get brilliant. Two straight Western Conference Finals appearances have a humorous method of doing that.
Still, optimism is one factor. The math of the Western Conference standings is one other.
What It Will Actually Take
Obtaining the three seed goes to require navigating a closing schedule that appears loads much less pleasant than February’s.
The Wolves will face a handful of heavyweight Eastern Conference video games towards the Detroit Pistons and the Boston Celtics. Those video games don’t straight affect the Western Conference race by way of knocking rivals down a peg, however they nonetheless matter. Lose these video games and instantly you’re handing free floor again to the groups chasing you.
But the actual swing video games lie nearer to dwelling.
The Wolves nonetheless have a remaining showdown with the Los Angeles Lakers, the similar workforce they bounced from the first spherical of the playoffs final season. That recreation carries some symbolic weight, however extra importantly it’s one other alternative to create separation from a Western Conference opponent that might love nothing greater than to tug Minnesota again into the standings site visitors jam.
The most vital dates remaining on the calendar are the two video games towards Houston, which could in the end decide the complete race for the three seed. If the Wolves drop a kind of matchups, they hand the Rockets the tiebreaker, doubtlessly giving Houston a transparent path to leapfrog them in the standings. But if Minnesota wins each? Suddenly the Rockets begin wanting loads smaller in the rearview mirror.
Those video games are primarily four-point swings in the standings. Win them and the Wolves achieve floor whereas Houston loses it. Lose them and the reverse occurs.
And hovering in the background, as all the time, is Denver. The Wolves have already performed all 4 video games towards the Nuggets this season, and sadly for Minnesota the outcomes didn’t go their method. Denver took three of the 4 conferences, which suggests they maintain the tiebreaker. That issues. In a Western Conference the place the standings are packed tighter than rush-hour site visitors, these tiebreakers can develop into extremely worthwhile.
The Wolves can’t change the head-to-head outcomes now. That ship has sailed. The solely method to hold Denver at bay is the old style method: Stack wins.
It’s not glamorous. It’s not sophisticated. But it’s the actuality of the state of affairs.
The Road Trip That Could Decide Everything
If there’s one stretch of video games that would decide whether or not Minnesota climbs the subsequent run to the three seed or slides again into the standings chaos, it’s the upcoming highway journey.
First comes that matchup with the Lakers, a workforce Minnesota has but to beat. Then the Wolves face two groups which have given them issues at instances this season, the Clippers and the Warriors. Both have confirmed able to knocking Minnesota off on nights the place the Wolves drift or lose focus.
And then, simply to maintain issues fascinating, the highway journey concludes with the fourth and remaining matchup towards the Oklahoma City Thunder. No clarification wanted there.
If the Wolves stumble by means of that four-game gauntlet, they might very simply discover themselves sliding again towards the fifth or sixth seed. But in the event that they maintain serve and stroll away with three wins out of 4? Suddenly the standings begin wanting rather more secure.
That’s the distinction between surviving March and really proudly owning it.
Can the Wolves Grab the Three Seed?
The potential is there. The roster is deep. Anthony Edwards is taking part in at a famous person degree. The protection nonetheless has Gobert anchoring the paint. The supporting forged has confirmed able to stepping up when wanted.
But potential solely issues if it interprets into wins.
The Western Conference isn’t going at hand Minnesota something. The Rockets are staring them down. The Nuggets are lurking. The Lakers are a workforce with the potential to go on a random heater at any second.
.And if that playoff race alone isn’t sufficient pleasure for you, nicely… there’s all the time one other method so as to add somewhat adrenaline to the experience. You can all the time head over to FanDuel Sportsbook, the place followers can wager on Wolves video games.
Because if this Western Conference race has taught us something, it’s this: The subsequent few weeks are going to be must-watch basketball.
