Staff Predictions: Florida State Seminoles vs. No. 19 SMU Mustangs

The Florida State Seminoles (1-0, 0-0 ACC) will host the preseason No. 19-ranked SMU Mustangs (0-0, 0-0 ACC) on Labor Day night for a primetime, nationally televised matchup at Doak Campbell Stadium to shut out Week 1 of the 2026 faculty soccer season.

The groups are dealing with off for under the second time, and the primary in Tallahassee, with SMU comfortably beating the Seminoles 42-16 in Dallas of their earlier 2024 assembly. The kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. and will likely be televised and streamed by ESPN.

The Seminoles are coming off an underwhelming 34-17 win final week as 31-point favorites over New Mexico State, in a sport that was nonetheless doubtful within the Third quarter, 17-10, earlier than the Noles lastly took management halfway by means of the 4th quarter.

After ending their 2024 ACC debut season with an 8-0 undefeated file, SMU completed the 2025 season with a 6-2 ACC file that may have been 8-0 if not for a 1-point loss to Wake Forest and a late landing by California with 43 seconds remaining that price the Mustangs any probability on the CFP, regardless of having overwhelmed Tenth-ranked Miami throughout final season.

The Mustangs Fifth-year head coach Rhett Lashlee’s 38-16 general SMU resume contains an look within the inaugural 12-team College Football 2024 Playoff because the eleventh seed, and a 14-2 convention file in SMU’s first 2 seasons as an ACC member. Incidentally, SMU gave up its first 9 years of ACC media rights (zero media income estimated at $200 million) to be accepted into the identical convention that FSU is suing to get out of.

The SMU offense is led by Third-year beginning QB Kevin Jennings, who has reportedly recovered from an injured index finger on his throwing hand from a locker room incident that brought on him 2 missed weeks of fall camp, and can begin for the Mustangs’ season opener. Jennings is not any stranger to FSU followers after torching the Seminole protection in 2024, finishing 16 of 23 passes for 254 yards and a career-high 3 touchdowns with 0 interceptions, main SMU to rack up 458 yards of offense.

SMU’s offense will likely be changing its high two operating backs, 4 of its high receivers (2 vast receivers and a pair of tight ends), and two offensive linemen, all who have been starters final season and are not with the crew.

Despite having to switch two starters, the three returning offensive linemen make up what is taken into account one of many Mustangs’ strongest items, led by Second Team All-ACC left sort out PJ Williams, All-ACC honorable point out heart Joshua Bates, and Tennessee and Arkansas switch proper guard Addison Nichols. Bates and Williams have been each named to the All-ACC preseason crew and the Outland Trophy Watchlist, and Bates can be on the Rimington Trophy Watchlist as properly.

SMU’s linebackers, led by Alexander Kilgore, are probably the most skilled unit on the defensive facet and all 3 are returning starters. Both the defensive position and secondary had vital losses from final season; nonetheless, Lashlee restocked his protection with skilled portal transfers, most with earlier beginning expertise elsewhere.

Here is the place issues may get attention-grabbing. When Rhett Lashlee changed Sonny Dykes as SMU’s head coach for the 2022 season, he employed Casey Woods as his offensive coordinator and Scott Symons as his defensive coordinator. Woods and Symons have been instrumental in SMU’s success whereas teaching the Mustangs to a 38-16 general file (7-6, 11-3, 11-3, 9-4) throughout this four-season interval. Woods is now the top coach at Missouri State, and Symons is an assistant coach with the Dallas Cowboys.

What may make this attention-grabbing for the Seminoles is that Rhett Lashlee determined to not rent both an offensive or a defensive coordinator. Instead, the offense will likely be run by a committee of three consisting of the OL coach, the WR coach, and the QB coach, in addition to every coach persevering with on with their current positional duties and necessities.

Defensively, instead of a devoted coordinator, they are going to have co-defensive coordinators, with one coach calling the defensive performs throughout video games, and the opposite coach calling the secondary.

Hopefully, the Seminoles can take benefit and be on the receiving finish of any teaching lapses and confusion for a change, particularly since that is SMU’s first sport below their new coaching-by-committee system, in a nighttime sport at Doak.

Florida State is trending as a 2.5-point underdog, with the over/under set at 53.5 points, according to FanDuel.

Florida State acquired the win towards New Mexico State, however there have been nonetheless loads of errors that have to be cleaned up earlier than dealing with a a lot more durable SMU crew.

Offensively, FSU nonetheless has loads of weapons round Ashton Daniels. Duce Robinson, Micahi Danzy, Landen Thomas, Sam Singleton Jr., and Ousmane Kromah all have the flexibility to make performs, however I believe the largest query will likely be whether or not the Seminoles can put collectively extra constant drives and reap the benefits of their alternatives.

Defensively, FSU will even must take a step ahead. SMU goes to problem the Seminoles greater than New Mexico State did, and I believe we’ll get a significantly better concept of what this FSU crew truly appears like after this sport.

Playing at dwelling ought to assist FSU maintain it shut, however based mostly on what I noticed within the season opener, I count on FSU to look higher than it did final week, however I believe SMU makes a couple of extra performs down the stretch to return away with the win.

I’m simply right here so I don’t get fined.

Even earlier than the unusual NMSU, I didn’t believe that Florida State may do something of substance on this sport. The Mustangs are a veteran, deep, well-coached crew. Do any of these phrases apply to FSU?

Rhett Lashlee can have one thing cooked up after a complete offseason to plan, and the quarterback benefit SMU has with Kevin Jennings will likely be an excessive amount of for the Seminoles to beat. I believe the larger query is that if this Labor Day matchup turns right into a gong present like towards Boston College a couple of years in the past, or if the Noles have one thing to take from this sport. For now, I agree with Jessi: the sport is shut and high-scoring earlier than SMU pulls away for a double-digit win on the street. The Mustangs cowl and the over 52.5.

Walking out of Doak Campbell final Saturday, I advised my buddy the Mustangs have been going to win by 24+. But because the time between no matter that opening efficiency was and this prediction has widened, a couple of components in FSU’s favor now stand out.

A) All time, groups which have already performed a sport cowl the unfold about 56% of the time when dealing with an opponent that has but to play a sport that season.

2) Over the final 4 years, dwelling underdogs of two.5 or much less factors (which is the place the road began) have truly gained outright about 47% of the time. And whereas the unfold has jumped to +3.5 for FSU, that’s been the results of a tidal wave of public betting on SMU. Vegas didn’t get wealthy by dropping to the general public.

d) As irritating as FSU’s play and outcomes have been the final two years, the Noles have truly gone 6-2 at dwelling over their final 8 video games. And the 2 losses have been by a mixed 9 factors to groups that gained a mixed 21 video games.

Indeed, if this sport pitted simply two random opponents with all these similar components, I’d very probably take the house crew to tug the “small upset” and win outright. But it’s not two random groups. It’s two groups I’m pretty acquainted with. And till confirmed in any other case, I’ll proceed to imagine that FSU will make sufficient errors—teaching and participant execution—throughout high-leverage conditions (corresponding to a tripping penalty on first down inside your opponent’s 10-yard line) that permits Mike Norvell’s squad to grab defeat from the jaws of victory.

Did I or did I not say final week that I might solely actually learn into the season opener if it was nearer than anticipated?

Unfortunately, that exhibiting made me anxious that even my meager win projection could possibly be too excessive for this yr’s crew. There have been some issues I favored, however the lack of push on both facet of the road of scrimmage towards a Conference USA crew makes me anxious about how that can play out this week towards a crew picked to complete second within the ACC.

Maybe the Doak impact can present its face Monday night time. It looks like this crew wants that to be an equalizer of types towards a notably extra gifted crew.

FSU goes to instantly reverse course as a result of it’s laborious for me to ascertain the Seminoles stopping anybody constantly the way in which third downs got up vs. New Mexico State. Nine occasions out of ten, you give me a single-digit favourite in Doak I’m going to need to select Doak. That’s not taking place till I see critical enchancment within the move rush. I don’t assume I can decide this to beat a crew as well-coached and as veteran as SMU with this ‘death by a thousand cuts’ fashion of protection that FSU needs to play.

As good as Kevin Jennings is, he’s the kind of streaky thrower that you simply need to strain and pressure chaos round him, even when meaning one-on-ones down the sphere. You spent closely to retain these DBs, pressure them to make performs. This facet of the ball looks like a extreme teaching mismatch to me.

On the offensive facet, I like FSU’s means to attain factors, particularly at dwelling with these talent gamers, however I’m going to simply be brutally trustworthy. The QB processes method too slowly, and that interception is one thing 18-year-olds do, not 22-year-olds. He’s the bottleneck that can cease this engine from going; greater than any OL or the TEs, as I presently see it. He’s going to make performs, and he can prolong properly outdoors the pocket, however on-time balls and throwing guys to an open area reasonably than the place they’re? Not prone to occur in yr 5.

Unfortunately, Mustangs win.

I don’t belief this employees or this crew, however I’d be blissful to be confirmed incorrect.

Last week’s defensive efficiency doesn’t bode properly for dealing with SMU’s Kevin Jennings. The skilled SMU line and Jennings’ pocket consciousness, mixed with FSU’s bend-don’t-break protection, are a recipe for catastrophe. The Seminoles will lose comfortably.

This has aaaaaaaaaaaaalllll the makings of a loss. One actually underrated a part of SMU’s offense is their line. Goodness, they’ve two preseason All-ACC guys blocking for Kevin Jennings, maybe one of the best dual-threat quarterback within the convention. How SMU is only a 3.5-point favourite, I’ve no clue. FSU goes to get completely fried by their passing and speeding assault, the Seminoles’ protection can’t protection.

Kromah and Singleton ought to nonetheless be good-to-great, and at the least it’s a three-day weekend.

This would be the sport when every thing comes collectively for the Noles. The Noles are solely 2.5-point underdogs for a cause. Vegas is aware of it, and the Seminoles comprehend it.

The sport will comply with the same storyline to what we witnessed final yr when Alabama got here to Tallahassee. The Seminoles could not dominate in any respect three positional items for all the sport, however FSU will win the offensive, defensive, and particular groups battles as a result of the FSU gamers will give 110% extra effort, they are going to need it extra, and they’re going to play with extra coronary heart than their SMU opponents.

Also, Lashlee has a really punchable face.

FSU Seminoles 34, Beaten Horses Ridden Hard and Put Away Wet 27

What’s the purpose of soccer season if to not be somewhat delusional every now and then?

I do know, I do know, this sport has each all of the comfortable components (apparent upset selection within the eyes of the remainder of the nation) and actual ones (SMU is a greater crew) that point out a loss, however I can’t shake the sensation of this being a Florida State win. I discovered myself agreeing with the teaching employees all week once they stated that every one the problems that arose throughout final week’s win have been correctable as a result of, actually, by and enormous, they’re — whether or not they get corrected is the true concern, although at the least the message additionally coming from gamers is that also they are aggravated with what was left on the sphere towards New Mexico State.

You can see it, too, can’t you? FSU will get a 14-point lead, makes it method nearer than it must be by kicking a subject objective when a landing is required as SMU begins to sneak again into it, however holds on for a win that’s nonetheless one way or the other irritating.

These are Hulk-sized ifs, but when FSU realized from its movie, if the Seminoles shake off the communication points and (the largest one) if the offensive line is at the least somewhat bit extra discovered, a win is up for grabs.

Under Rhett Lashlee, the Mustangs have misplaced each sport (0-4) vs. their first energy convention opponent of the season, all of them following at the least one tune-up matchup. And as Matt identified above, there are further statistical tendencies that time in FSU’s favor.

How the Seminoles bounce again from a lackluster defensive exhibiting is the important thing to a Monday night time upset. The Mustangs are changing a bulk of their receiving corps, however Kevin Jennings being the fixed helps stage out any potential manufacturing drop-off by means of the air. SMU’s rushing attack fell off a bit last year, although the hope is that former NC State and California operating again Kendrick Raphael will add to Jennings’ dual-threat means to reverse that pattern.

On protection, the Mustangs have been particularly susceptible within the secondary, ranked second-to-last nationally in passing yards per sport, and are changing a couple of names — although they’re anticipated to have first-team All-ACC security Ahmaad Moses again after being granted a fifth yr of eligibility. SMU can be changing the majority of its defensive position, dropping all 4 starters from final season.

Let Ousmane Kromah, Sam Singleton Jr., and Tre Wisner get flowing, feed Duce a couple of occasions, end performs out when getting strain from the trenches, truly snuff out drives on third down, humble the Ponies, and get a modicum of hope heading into Alabama week.

Florida State Seminoles vs. SMU Mustangs

Pre-Game Coverage from Tomahawk Nation

Florida State Seminoles vs. SMU Mustangs: How to look at, stream, odds

Weekly Tomahawk Nation Member Guest Picker

This week’s TN member visitor picker is Topnole, a long-time TN member who joined on July 27, 2016:

In my time at FSU, SMU soccer didn’t exist, because the NCAA gave them the “death penalty” for what would now be regular conduct. Moreover, any crew coming to Tallahassee anticipated a 60-minute slugfest at finest, simply hoping to be within the sport within the fourth quarter. The almost definitely situation was a blowout loss for visiting groups, and Doak offered an enormous home-field benefit (and I misplaced my voice throughout many rivalry video games doing my half). My, how issues have modified. But I digress as I recall how fortunate I used to be to be a pupil within the dynasty years.

Now to the matter at hand. Before Saturday, I used to be beginning to be ok with FSU soccer based mostly on a couple of optimistic articles I learn in regards to the massive guys within the trenches. My optimism had me believing we’d simply see some actually good issues from the O and D traces, and we might be fairly aggressive with groups like SMU. However, it might appear that one more yr of blind optimism rapidly turned to pessimism and concern. Anyone watching Saturday is aware of we want vital progress (and rapidly) from the O and D traces. I’ve heard many occasions over that the best progress made in a season occurs from sport one to sport two. Is it attainable that we see such progress on Labor Day? I can’t rule that out, however it’s laborious to not be skeptical given the previous seven years.

To me, this sport comes right down to the trenches. If the O-line can block and never maintain, if the D-line will get strain and may cease the run, and if we eradicate among the miscommunication within the secondary…. If all of those occur, I believe we win.

Those are some massive ifs, and I don’t assume we’re fairly there. It is extra probably that we see Daniels below strain far too usually, and our RBs combating for any optimistic yardage as they get hit at or behind the road. Unfortunately, I simply don’t see us having the horse(s) to outrun the Mustangs. They will take pleasure in too many third-and-long conversions on high of many simple first-down runs. They will even profit from a damaged play or two, all of this leading to lots of factors. We will pop one or two massive performs that may lead to a TD or two, however a lot of our drives will lead to three-and-out or a stall as we close to or hit the purple zone, leading to MN making some choices that make all of us groan in discomfort. Sadly, I predict that is going to be a reasonably snug win for the Mustangs. I hope I’m incorrect and the massive guys present us some vital development.

It was an honor being a visitor picker among the many legendary TN Staff and the various different nice TN contributors right here, however…

*The TN member with the closest ultimate rating prediction within the remark part beneath will likely be given the chance to be a visitor picker later this season if they’re excited about taking part.

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